Nothing yesterday but Monday was a good start to the week & a nicely profitable day with both the single & the double landing. Having gone through today have decided on a couple of bets that look good value, both on the afternoon card at Lingfield.
Lingfield -
14:30 - BLACK SCHNAPPS 11/8 (6/4 SP) WIN = WON
William Muir's 2 year old Colt comes into this one for just his second racecourse outing after a very promising debut 2nd at Salisbury a fortnight ago. Going over the same trip of a mile here today & drops from a class 4 maiden into a class 6 which on paper makes this race look easier than the one contested last time out. In that debut run he stayed on well in the final furlong from towards the rear to claim a clear second & that performance looks as though it definitely sets the standard for this race. Racing on turf that day (heavy going) so the fact that today's race is on the polytrack brings about some unknown but i don't think that should pose too much of a problem & isn't anywhere near as much of a concern as if say he was transferring from heavy turf to good to firm turf. It is also quite typical for William Muir trained horses to come on from their first run & considering the promise he showed on that debut could mean any movement in the right direction here today should see him lay down a big challenge. From the others the best could come from the Ed Dunlop newcomer Lifejacket & although his pedigree suggests he could go well first time out i am hoping that BLACK SCHNAPPS debut experience gives him the upper hand. Lawman's Lady is another who shaped with some promise on debut but took a step backwards at wolves last time so while she could be a challenger she would have to improve markedly for this step up in trip if BLACK SCHNAPPS is going the right way on his second run. On all evidence BLACK SCHNAPPS brings into the race the best credentials & in my eyes, he wouldn't need to improve much to be seriously involved here. Although short enough in the market he looks worth the bet.
17:10 - JUVENAL 8/1 EW = LOST (6/12)
Class 5 handicap over a mile for this one & while a few of these could have a worthwhile case made for them, one that catches the eye as perhaps slightly over priced is Richard Hannon's runner JUVENAL who when contesting handicaps has largely been running in class 3 & 4 company. Around this sort of time last year this gelding was going well & as a result won a pair of bigger field handicaps over this distance on the turf (a class 4 & class 5) off higher marks & carrying more weight. Didn't get going really this season in a few runs in handicap company but has returned back to a bit of form recently when placing in a couple of claiming races & finishing in behind an 85 rated winner last time. Those two placed efforts came over 10f & he just didn't quite stay the trip, so the drop back to a mile today is sure to be appreciated. Is looking off a decent handicap mark at the moment though & is in fact due to go up 4lb in the ratings after this race. Although towards the top of the weights here he is ridden by handy 3lb claimer William Twiston-Davies. That recent place form in claimers finishing in behind rivals who have also done well at this level could possibly transfer well & Ultimately JUVENAL could go well back in handicap company today dropping back to what looks like his optimum distance of 8 furlongs. All in all at a nice price of 8/1 he has the profile to go well here today & could hit the place money given the right run so looks worth a small punt EW.
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