Unfortunately there will be no blog from now (31/07/2013) until Monday the 12th of August this is something i am disappointed because i have only started not too long ago & feel things have been going well. this absence is down to work commitments over the next few days & then i am going on a weeks holiday. The blog will be back on a regular basis from 12/08/2013.
Although the last two days of tips were poor ones, making only smallish losses but losses none the less, on the whole it has been a decent start from chirpy, showing decent profit figures for july since starting the blog around 2 weeks ago.
Profit & Loss (July)
July 2013 (12 days of tips) = + 90.4 points (my actual profit)
As a different example,
for a £10 level stake on all tips in july (12 days tips) the return would be = + £358.58
Monday 29th July 2013 - Daily Tips
Afternoon Cards -
Ayr -
Just the two picks on this card here today, with the ground soft(heavy in places), this puts a lot of races into the unknown with the majority of runners not races on anything worse than good. Have picked a few EW that have previous form on today's ground.
14:30 Best EW Breezolini 11/2 = LOST
The only one in this race to have had multiple runs in today's ground, showing some decent form off higher marks in those runs, most notably when winning a class 5f event at doncaster in heavy ground off 5lb higher back in july last year. Also ran a creditable 2nd of 1o at today's course over a furlong further in very similar conditions as today. If bringing this sort of game forward today & combined with the fact that the others have very little experience between them on this ground then breezloni can go close, while the price is decent enough the EW value is there.
16:30 Best EW Steer By The Stars 5/1
The decsion again here is based mostly on form on today's ground, Won a 7f event at catterick back in october in conditions as today's & won comfortably off 2lb higher. Not been given a crack at soft/heavy ground off a decent mark since then & although today's trip is over 8f i think this filly shouldn't find it too much trouble as she has the ground heavily in her favour & is worth the EW.
Wolverhampton -
15:45 Best EW Winnie Perry 6/1 = LOST
Finished a good second of 11 runners 12 days ago at lingfied, over today's trip, in same class & running off the same mark. This suggests that he could be every bit as competitive in today's race. Has been coming down the weights for poor runs on turf, that run last time out his first outing on the AW over this trip & he looked to relish it. At 6/1 today looks a solid EW bet.
16:15 Best EW Avonvalley 14/1
Avonvalley looks as if he may have found himself a good opening here to have a solid crack at the places. has come back down the weight slightly to arrive at a C&D winning mark today. Won over the C&D back in march with today's jockey on for that one. Ran a creditable 4th last time out at lingfield off 1b higher, is reproducing that sort of form here this gelding can lay down a claim for the EW money.
16:45 Best EW Blazing Dessert 8/1
This gelding shows some of his best form on the AW, admittedly most of it comes over 12 furlong races but also showed form over 14f on turf when finishing 2/8 2 runs back. Ran over 14f on the Aw at Southwell back in may & finished midfield but off 6lb higher, down to lowest mark for a while now & has won over 12f off higher marks. Off this mark looks as if should be able to challenge for the places at a decent EW price.
Ayr -
Just the two picks on this card here today, with the ground soft(heavy in places), this puts a lot of races into the unknown with the majority of runners not races on anything worse than good. Have picked a few EW that have previous form on today's ground.
14:30 Best EW Breezolini 11/2 = LOST
The only one in this race to have had multiple runs in today's ground, showing some decent form off higher marks in those runs, most notably when winning a class 5f event at doncaster in heavy ground off 5lb higher back in july last year. Also ran a creditable 2nd of 1o at today's course over a furlong further in very similar conditions as today. If bringing this sort of game forward today & combined with the fact that the others have very little experience between them on this ground then breezloni can go close, while the price is decent enough the EW value is there.
16:30 Best EW Steer By The Stars 5/1
The decsion again here is based mostly on form on today's ground, Won a 7f event at catterick back in october in conditions as today's & won comfortably off 2lb higher. Not been given a crack at soft/heavy ground off a decent mark since then & although today's trip is over 8f i think this filly shouldn't find it too much trouble as she has the ground heavily in her favour & is worth the EW.
Wolverhampton -
15:45 Best EW Winnie Perry 6/1 = LOST
Finished a good second of 11 runners 12 days ago at lingfied, over today's trip, in same class & running off the same mark. This suggests that he could be every bit as competitive in today's race. Has been coming down the weights for poor runs on turf, that run last time out his first outing on the AW over this trip & he looked to relish it. At 6/1 today looks a solid EW bet.
16:15 Best EW Avonvalley 14/1
Avonvalley looks as if he may have found himself a good opening here to have a solid crack at the places. has come back down the weight slightly to arrive at a C&D winning mark today. Won over the C&D back in march with today's jockey on for that one. Ran a creditable 4th last time out at lingfield off 1b higher, is reproducing that sort of form here this gelding can lay down a claim for the EW money.
16:45 Best EW Blazing Dessert 8/1
This gelding shows some of his best form on the AW, admittedly most of it comes over 12 furlong races but also showed form over 14f on turf when finishing 2/8 2 runs back. Ran over 14f on the Aw at Southwell back in may & finished midfield but off 6lb higher, down to lowest mark for a while now & has won over 12f off higher marks. Off this mark looks as if should be able to challenge for the places at a decent EW price.
Sunday 28th July 2013
There will be no blog posted on sunday's this will be our regular day off. Yesterday was a poor day really, was always going to be hard on a big saturday like that & only managed the 1 winner & 1 placed. Was only small losses because all bets were small EW's. This week overall has been a good one though making some nice profit everyday we covered during the week giving good profit overall. Blog will be make monday where hopefully we can improve on saturday's below par results.
Saturday 27th July 2013 - Daily Tips
Today's racing looks head & shoulders above anything else that has been on offer this past week, the highlight of which is the card at Ascot which brings some racing from the top drawer, have done my best to cover this card in full along with fancies from the other cards around today. While today is good racing there are a lot of big field races so (not that i don't anyway) the order of the day has to be siding with EW value. Hopefully can round off a good week of profit, here they are;
Newcastle -
15:05 Best EW Gatepost 5/1 = LOST
Has been coming down the ratings for sometime & looks to be off quite a lenient mark today considering this gelding shows some solid form in class 2 races (today class 3) off higher marks. finished 4/11 last time out over this trip & in class above off 2lb higher so if replicating that run here today he could potentially go very close.
Ascot -
14:05 - Best EW Fig Roll 10/1 = LOST
Group 3 2 year old fillies race kicks off the afternoon at ascot & i have gone with the Hughes/Hannon horse Fig Roll. Offers up some decent form in group 2 & a nice win in listed company, the pick of that group 2 form was when finishing 4 of 23 over C&D at the Royal meeting, admittedly that was over 5f but has won at listed level over 6f & ran a modest 4 of 8 in a group 2 last time out. This form coupled with her opening mark which could prove lenient compared to some others in the race make her a decent prospect of reaching the place money at this price.
14:40 - Best EW Fehaydi 10/1 & Defendant 12/1 = LOST
Fehaydi has some produced some decent form in this class off today's mark of late, the pick of which when finishing 7 of a big field 27 over C&D towards the back end of june. If repeating that sort of run off the same mark in this field then could potentially go close. Defendant ran a decent 3rd last time out in her only appearance at this level & considering Sir Mark Prescott has his horses in good form at the moment he could come on from that, goes off same mark but ridden by handy apprentice Robert Tart who is claiming 5lb who if getting things right in the saddle could steer this colt into the money. Small EW.
15:15 - Best EW Es Que Love 14/1 & LOST
Redvers 12/1 LOST
Head Of Steam 33/1 - Small Stake LOST
Trail Blaze 33/1 - Small Stake = PLACED (2/29)
This is an extraordinary sized field comprised of 29 runners & in such circumstances it is usually hard to tip something with any real confidence because what ever wins is going to need a bit of luck & things to pan out the right way. Certainly wouldn't advise any serious stake money here so thought i'd pick out a few that look to potentially have the chance of making the frame at big prices (5 places). Es Que Love has some solid form in big field handicaps & goes off a mark 2lb lower than when finishing 2/19 at Newmarket two runs back so could easily be up there again. Redvers is another who has solid form for finishing at the right end of big fields, off same mark as last two when finishing 5/16 & 7/27 at Newmarket & Ascot, champion jockey Hughes booked on the ride so again if the race pans out right then could be there or thereabouts. Head of Steam & Trail Blaze are two that looks to have a squeak of making the places on the pick of there form & anything is possible in this field so they look worth a very small EW dabble at nice big prices.
16:25 - Best EW Ocean Tempest 8/1 = NON RUNNER
Amatuer rider's up for this one so not sure how things should really turn out, one that does look interesting is ocean tempest. Has some solid place form in class 2's over 8 off this mark which should transfer well into today's drop in class (class 3) hasn't run 7f at this level yet but has had the experience over 7f & if able to cope with the sharpness then this gelding looks a decent EW bet.
Newmarket -
14:45 - Best EW Clayton 15/2 = WON
Opted for Clayton EW here & it looks a good bet, Offers up some solid place form figures in class 2 handicaps off today's mark & this form could be well in considering today's run comes in class 3. Was Poor last time out over 9f but if putting that behind him today returning to 10f he could be back challenging for the places, The top drawer Tom Queally has the ride today which can only be viewed as a positive & looks a decent EW value bet.
15:55 - Best EW Rene Mathis 20/1 = LOST
Offers up some solid place form of late, finishing 2nd & 3rd last two runs in this class off marks of 82 & 85, goes off 86 today but considering that was a good performance last time off 85 that shouldn't harm this gelding's place chances. Also going off lowest weight & in my eyes could ultimately be overpriced & is worth the small EW punt.
York -
13:50 - Best EW Maven 7/1 = LOST
The two market favourites here look worth avoiding in my opinion considering they are both too short for the EW & both come into this on the back of a victory in maiden company & you can never be certain how maiden form transfers into handicaps. Going with Maven here, admittedly isn't showing the most exciting form but was a winner over in this class over the trip 2 runs back off 3lb lower & does have some place form here at york in this class if you go back a bit, against this field looks as if she might just be able to run a big race, small stakes though.
14:05 - Best EW Les Troyense 8/1 = LOST & Medhi 14/1= LOST
Les Troyense was not disgraced when finishing 6/13 on his handicap debut in this country & has some regular place form to offer up running in Dubai, 1lb lower than last time today & F tylicki booked for the ride who has been in some decent form of late. In this field looks as if this Godolphin trained horse could make a good claim for the places & worth the EW play. It also looks as if a small EW stake on market outsider medhi could be worthwhile, has slowly been coming down the ratings from the low 100's to now going off 88. Has shown some average form when contesting in group 3 events, if regaining some old form off this new mark & at this level should could be more competitive than his price suggests.
15:30 - Best EW Mississippi 12/1 = LOST & Tarooq 16/1 = LOST
Another Big field handicap up here, with it being 4 places thought id have to pick a couple EW's out. Mississippi has some decent place form in big fields most notably when finishing 6 of 30 at the curragh last month, goes off same mark today & has a shout at a nice EW price. Tarooq has been sliding down the weight & looks potentially well handicapped against these going off lowest weight, best form came off a rating off 100 (80 today) at class 1 listed level back in march & ran a good 7/20 last time out over today's C&D off 2lb higher. If displaying some of that old form here today off a nice mark could potentially go close at a nice EW price.
16:40 Best EW Mister Pagan 10/1 = LOST
Didn't find too much to shout about in this field but Mister Pagan in my mind looks as if he could be one of the strongest, admittedly there isn't too much to go on so i could get this wrong but at 10/1 looks a value for a small EW punt, ran 4 of 16 last time out in class 4, today a class 3 but doesn't look all that much better & runs here today off the same mark but is ridden by 7lb claiming apprentice Jordan Nelson, if he can put that to good use Mister Pagan could make a real effort to make the frame.
Lingfield -
20:30 Best EW Royal Sea 7/1 = LOST & Spirit Of Gondree 16/1 = LOST
Starting with Royal Sea, Looking through his records, shows some decent form on the AW & Has been getting involved in class 4 & 5 races recently finishing midfield. Drops back to class 6 tonight & going off lowest mark for a while of 58 (has won of 60), Robert Tart on board tonight who was the rider the last time this gelding won, on the form looks to have as good as chance of any. Spirit of Gondree is another who goes of his lowest mark for a while & has some decent form figures particularly over tonight's trip of 10 furlong, best of which when finishing 5th of 14 & 3rd of 12 in pair of class 6 handicaps at kempton back in march, 3lb lower than that tonight & looks to have a chance on making the frame at a nice EW price of 16/1.
20:30 Best EW Royal Sea 7/1 = LOST & Spirit Of Gondree 16/1 = LOST
Starting with Royal Sea, Looking through his records, shows some decent form on the AW & Has been getting involved in class 4 & 5 races recently finishing midfield. Drops back to class 6 tonight & going off lowest mark for a while of 58 (has won of 60), Robert Tart on board tonight who was the rider the last time this gelding won, on the form looks to have as good as chance of any. Spirit of Gondree is another who goes of his lowest mark for a while & has some decent form figures particularly over tonight's trip of 10 furlong, best of which when finishing 5th of 14 & 3rd of 12 in pair of class 6 handicaps at kempton back in march, 3lb lower than that tonight & looks to have a chance on making the frame at a nice EW price of 16/1.
Newcastle -
15:05 Best EW Gatepost 5/1 = LOST
Has been coming down the ratings for sometime & looks to be off quite a lenient mark today considering this gelding shows some solid form in class 2 races (today class 3) off higher marks. finished 4/11 last time out over this trip & in class above off 2lb higher so if replicating that run here today he could potentially go very close.
Friday 26th July 2013
There will be no blog today, will be back as normal tomorrow where hopefully a good week of nice profit can be capped off with a decent day. Since releasing the blog just over a week ago, its been getting some steady views & in turn have got some real nice value tips out there making a good overall profit, hopefully people have found the tips & analysis useful & i would love to hear any feedback anyone might have either on twitter or on the comment on here.
Back tomorrow & be lucky!
Chirpy
Back tomorrow & be lucky!
Chirpy
Thursday 25th July 2013 - Daily Tips
Once again today's afternoon cards in my opinion are pretty poor quality, the majority of each card is dominated by really small field races which negate any possibilities of a good EW bet & i am mostly all about finding good EW value. So just a few picks in the few bigger field races this afternoon & keeping stakes small as racing isn't the best. Things looks to pick up Slightl in the evening, much like yesterday so evening picks will go on later on.
Afternoon Cards -
Sandown -
15:05 - Best EW Ligea 11/2 = LOST (6/7)
The best quality race on offer at sandown today & will very likely be a tight contest. Champion jockey R Hughes looks to have an interesting mount on ligea, comfortably won a maiden race on her second outing & followed up by being a heavily eased winner over 6f in a class 5 handicap last time out which suggests she should step into listed class perhaps rather nicely & it seems as if trainer Richard Hannon is confident she can mix it at this level. further 7f looks as if it should suit considering she won her two 6f starts without having to find too much. While how she will perform at this level is unknown i think the price is worth the EW in a what is a tight race.
Yarmouth -
15:25 - Nullarbor Sky 6/4 win = WON (1/8)
I won't usually tip up a short priced fav unless it looks the best option & in this race Nullarbor sky is hard to get away from on the bare facts. Having been run over some varied trips recently & doing only ok she ran over today's trip of 11f last time out finishing a good second & was well clear of the rest. Same class today & going off the same mark so she really does look the one to focus on, with a punt on the nose looking worth while.
Bath -
17:30 - Best EW Catalina's Diamond 11/2 = PLACED (3/10) & TheNameIsFrank 9/1 = LOST
Catalina's Diamond ran 3rd in a class 5 over C&D last time out & was only 3/4 of length behind the winner, considering the drop down to class 6 today & the fact this mare goes off the same mark makes her look good value for the EW at a price of 11/2 which could ultimately be generous. Thenameisfrank is one i backed last week at brighton where he was disappointing after things looked to point towards a good run that day, if he can put that behind him & pick up on the form he showed the time out before that over today's C&D where he finished 2nd of 8 off today's mark then he can go well, Value EW bet at 9/1.
Evening Cards -
Leopardstown -
18:50 - Best EW Our Manekineko 7/1 = PLACED (2/9)
This Horse has been coming down the weight off late after being raised in quick succession after finishing 2nd at dundalk over 8f in march & following that up with a win at dundalk over the same trip. Back down to that dundalk winning mark today & if transferring that sort of form shown on the All weather then a claim for the places could be on.
19:55 Best EW Street Party 5/1 = LOST
Street party certainly doesn't offer up the best form figures here but to be fair he has contested some warm class 1 handicaps off higher marks recently with todays test being easier. Ran an improved 3/6 last time out over today's C&D off an OR of 66, down to 64 today & ridden by 4lb claiming apprentice C R Ring so there is a chance that this gelding could lay down a stand for the places & looks worthy of a small EW punt.
Doncaster -
18:45 - Best EW Clubland 9/2 = WON (1/10)
The tightly grouped front end of the market in this one suggest that it should be a tight affair & admittedly a few have decent claims, Clubland is one who looks in with a chance & is just big enough to get the EW cover at 9/2. The trip looks a genuine excuse last time out so that can be ignored, the run before that was over 6f in a class 4 handicap at thirsk off today's mark where he finished a decent 3rd of 12. If repeating that thirsk effort here then he should lay down an assault on the place money.
20:25 - Best EW Gioia Di Vita 5/1 = PLACED (2/9)
This Marco Botti colt has some decent form to offer up, most notable of which when finishing 2nd & 3rd in class 4's at Pontefract & Chester in May. Drops to a class 5 today & in transferring those runs over to today then he stands a good chance of being involved at the business end, 5/1 looks worth the EW bet here.
Afternoon Cards -
Sandown -
15:05 - Best EW Ligea 11/2 = LOST (6/7)
The best quality race on offer at sandown today & will very likely be a tight contest. Champion jockey R Hughes looks to have an interesting mount on ligea, comfortably won a maiden race on her second outing & followed up by being a heavily eased winner over 6f in a class 5 handicap last time out which suggests she should step into listed class perhaps rather nicely & it seems as if trainer Richard Hannon is confident she can mix it at this level. further 7f looks as if it should suit considering she won her two 6f starts without having to find too much. While how she will perform at this level is unknown i think the price is worth the EW in a what is a tight race.
Yarmouth -
15:25 - Nullarbor Sky 6/4 win = WON (1/8)
I won't usually tip up a short priced fav unless it looks the best option & in this race Nullarbor sky is hard to get away from on the bare facts. Having been run over some varied trips recently & doing only ok she ran over today's trip of 11f last time out finishing a good second & was well clear of the rest. Same class today & going off the same mark so she really does look the one to focus on, with a punt on the nose looking worth while.
Bath -
17:30 - Best EW Catalina's Diamond 11/2 = PLACED (3/10) & TheNameIsFrank 9/1 = LOST
Catalina's Diamond ran 3rd in a class 5 over C&D last time out & was only 3/4 of length behind the winner, considering the drop down to class 6 today & the fact this mare goes off the same mark makes her look good value for the EW at a price of 11/2 which could ultimately be generous. Thenameisfrank is one i backed last week at brighton where he was disappointing after things looked to point towards a good run that day, if he can put that behind him & pick up on the form he showed the time out before that over today's C&D where he finished 2nd of 8 off today's mark then he can go well, Value EW bet at 9/1.
Evening Cards -
Leopardstown -
18:50 - Best EW Our Manekineko 7/1 = PLACED (2/9)
This Horse has been coming down the weight off late after being raised in quick succession after finishing 2nd at dundalk over 8f in march & following that up with a win at dundalk over the same trip. Back down to that dundalk winning mark today & if transferring that sort of form shown on the All weather then a claim for the places could be on.
19:55 Best EW Street Party 5/1 = LOST
Street party certainly doesn't offer up the best form figures here but to be fair he has contested some warm class 1 handicaps off higher marks recently with todays test being easier. Ran an improved 3/6 last time out over today's C&D off an OR of 66, down to 64 today & ridden by 4lb claiming apprentice C R Ring so there is a chance that this gelding could lay down a stand for the places & looks worthy of a small EW punt.
Doncaster -
18:45 - Best EW Clubland 9/2 = WON (1/10)
The tightly grouped front end of the market in this one suggest that it should be a tight affair & admittedly a few have decent claims, Clubland is one who looks in with a chance & is just big enough to get the EW cover at 9/2. The trip looks a genuine excuse last time out so that can be ignored, the run before that was over 6f in a class 4 handicap at thirsk off today's mark where he finished a decent 3rd of 12. If repeating that thirsk effort here then he should lay down an assault on the place money.
20:25 - Best EW Gioia Di Vita 5/1 = PLACED (2/9)
This Marco Botti colt has some decent form to offer up, most notable of which when finishing 2nd & 3rd in class 4's at Pontefract & Chester in May. Drops to a class 5 today & in transferring those runs over to today then he stands a good chance of being involved at the business end, 5/1 looks worth the EW bet here.
Wednesday 24th July 2013 - Daily Tips
Today's afternoon card's at Catterick & Lingfield are packed full of really poor, awkward maidens & claiming races so a lot of those will be avoided as I feel I would be struggling to pick any confident value selections, so wouldn't want to put any of those out there. Generally poor racing all round today so small stakes, lots of non runners effecting EW places in races.
Sandown -
17:50 - Best EW Ishikawa 7/1 = PLACED (2/6)
Apprentice handicap which like most today looks a tricky one, Ishikawa could have an EW squeak is can match some of his from from early this year where he was 3 times winner & runner up on the AW, the latter two of those coming over 9f (today 10f) off higher marks, going off lowest mark for a while here today & if he can transfer that mentioned form from earlier on in the year then he could have a chance at the places today.
18:55 - Best EW Sea The Skies 5/1 = WON (1/10)
Usually stay away from maidens as there can be a lot of unknown quantities, however thought id have a go here considering there is a short priced fav who I don't think justifies the price tag (I could well be wrong). Sea the skies looks a decent alternative & at 5/1 is worth small EW play, Ran a good 3rd of his racecourse debut over the same trip in a class 4, today a class 5 & i don't think this colt would need much more today to claim a place.
20:05 - Best EW Lutine Bell 11/2 = PlACED (3/8) & Short Squeeze 8/1 = WON (1/8)
Couple here of fancy 7 couldn't really decide between the pair. Lutine Bell was outclassed when he last run over 8f two runs back but that was off 3lb higher & in a class 3 (today class 4), ran a very creditable 3rd of 15 over 7f at Doncaster last time out in a class 2 race off today's mark & with Ryan Moore in the saddle today a claim for the places could well be on the cards. Short Squeeze also ran a decent 3rd last time out over today's trip & class, only 1lb higher today & there is no reason why he can't go well again today at a nice EW price of 8/1.
Naas -
18:15 - Best EW La Caanada 6/1 = LOST
A case could be made for a few of these but in a tight race my preference is for La Caanada who is one of only 4 distance winners in the race & ran a good 3rd last time out off 2lb lower under today's jockey Wayne Lordan. No reason to assume cant go well again today & looks as good as any for a small EW bet at 6's.
18:50 - Best EW Cottrell 6/1 = PLACED (2/10)
Another maiden here which i would usually leave alone, however there are two short priced runners at the front of the market tonight who could ultimately be overpriced with cottrell in behind them at 5/1 who has been running ok finishing mid division in his last 4 maiden races off 2lb higher, also ridden by 3lb claiming apprentice today so i think this gelding has a chance of making the place money & looks decent value all things considered.
19:25 - Best EW Hanky Panky 8/1 = LOST (4/12)
Probably the best race throughout the cards tonight with some useful runners on show, one who does stand out as perhaps being overpriced is the Aiden O'brien trained Hanky Panky, who has contested in group 3 & a group 1 race over tonight's trip off the same mark. The pick of which came at Leopardstown in march where she ran a decent 3rd of 12 in a group 3 contest off tonight's mark. Dropping back into listed company off this same mark could see her lay down a decent run & stake a claim for the place money at a value price of 8/1.
Worcester -
Ran a respective 4/13 last time out on only her second outing over fences off an official rating off 1lb higher, that was over 22f & today's 20f looks sure to suit based on here previous form when hurdling, also goes off lowest weight here today. Over hurdles she ran a very creditable 5th of 23 runners at Doncaster on good ground off 10lb higher so if she can transfer that form to this sphere & build on last time out then 7/1 EW looks a good value prospect.
Sandown -
17:50 - Best EW Ishikawa 7/1 = PLACED (2/6)
Apprentice handicap which like most today looks a tricky one, Ishikawa could have an EW squeak is can match some of his from from early this year where he was 3 times winner & runner up on the AW, the latter two of those coming over 9f (today 10f) off higher marks, going off lowest mark for a while here today & if he can transfer that mentioned form from earlier on in the year then he could have a chance at the places today.
18:55 - Best EW Sea The Skies 5/1 = WON (1/10)
Usually stay away from maidens as there can be a lot of unknown quantities, however thought id have a go here considering there is a short priced fav who I don't think justifies the price tag (I could well be wrong). Sea the skies looks a decent alternative & at 5/1 is worth small EW play, Ran a good 3rd of his racecourse debut over the same trip in a class 4, today a class 5 & i don't think this colt would need much more today to claim a place.
20:05 - Best EW Lutine Bell 11/2 = PlACED (3/8) & Short Squeeze 8/1 = WON (1/8)
Couple here of fancy 7 couldn't really decide between the pair. Lutine Bell was outclassed when he last run over 8f two runs back but that was off 3lb higher & in a class 3 (today class 4), ran a very creditable 3rd of 15 over 7f at Doncaster last time out in a class 2 race off today's mark & with Ryan Moore in the saddle today a claim for the places could well be on the cards. Short Squeeze also ran a decent 3rd last time out over today's trip & class, only 1lb higher today & there is no reason why he can't go well again today at a nice EW price of 8/1.
Naas -
18:15 - Best EW La Caanada 6/1 = LOST
A case could be made for a few of these but in a tight race my preference is for La Caanada who is one of only 4 distance winners in the race & ran a good 3rd last time out off 2lb lower under today's jockey Wayne Lordan. No reason to assume cant go well again today & looks as good as any for a small EW bet at 6's.
18:50 - Best EW Cottrell 6/1 = PLACED (2/10)
Another maiden here which i would usually leave alone, however there are two short priced runners at the front of the market tonight who could ultimately be overpriced with cottrell in behind them at 5/1 who has been running ok finishing mid division in his last 4 maiden races off 2lb higher, also ridden by 3lb claiming apprentice today so i think this gelding has a chance of making the place money & looks decent value all things considered.
19:25 - Best EW Hanky Panky 8/1 = LOST (4/12)
Probably the best race throughout the cards tonight with some useful runners on show, one who does stand out as perhaps being overpriced is the Aiden O'brien trained Hanky Panky, who has contested in group 3 & a group 1 race over tonight's trip off the same mark. The pick of which came at Leopardstown in march where she ran a decent 3rd of 12 in a group 3 contest off tonight's mark. Dropping back into listed company off this same mark could see her lay down a decent run & stake a claim for the place money at a value price of 8/1.
Worcester -
14:20 - Crannaghmore boy 3/1 Win = LOST (fell 3 out)
While the front of the market could be tightly grouped here between Chandler's Cross, Petroupetrov & Crannaghmore boy, the preference has to be for the latter. Was beaten in 2nd of 16 last time out by an inform rival who has gone on to win again in a higher class. Goes off same mark today & with champion jockey AP MCcoy doing the steering this gelding is hard to oppose at a decent price of 3/1.
14:50 - Best EW Harry's Whim 7/1 = LOST (4/7, 2 non runner's meant only 2 places, would have been no bet if was original 7 runner field)
Ran a respective 4/13 last time out on only her second outing over fences off an official rating off 1lb higher, that was over 22f & today's 20f looks sure to suit based on here previous form when hurdling, also goes off lowest weight here today. Over hurdles she ran a very creditable 5th of 23 runners at Doncaster on good ground off 10lb higher so if she can transfer that form to this sphere & build on last time out then 7/1 EW looks a good value prospect.
15:20 - Best EW Reckless Romeo 20/1 = PLACED (3/14)
Big field amateur riders handicap here & looks very hard to be overly confident about much here, Thought id have a go at picking a decent EW though. Reckless Romeo looks worth a small EW punt at a nice price, finished midfield (5th & 6th) on the last two occasions admittedly was a long way off the winner both times, however that was over 25f & 24f which may have stretched this gelding slightly, over 23f today which could suit better & 8lb lower than last time out. In a race that doesn't look worth any serious betting this gelding might just be worth a small EW at a nice price.
15:50 - Best EW Henry Hurst 7/1 = LOST (4/11) Carhue Princess 8/1 = LOST (6/11)
Looks a really difficult one to assess here so a couple of EW's that could go well. Henry Hurst ran creditable third in a novice handciap hurdle off the same mark last time out and if building on that could make the frame again here. Carhue Princess has been running over varied trips & doing only OK ,one run over today's trip came in April and he was second of 16 all be it off 3lb lower, if transferring that form over to today off this mark she could also make a claim for the places.
16:50 - Another Hero 10/11 Win = WON (1/5)
Jonjo O'neils gelding is unbeaten in his 3 starts & was an impressive 8 lengths winner in the hands of AP MCcoy last time out in a class 5 maiden hurdle. Transferred to novice handicap class 4 company today so I am taking the risk in assuming that he can improve again here which is something i wouldn't perhaps do usually & he does give weight all round to this small field but has looked an improver on each of his starts so far & it shouldn't take much more to make it 4 from 4 here today with the others not offering the best form, AP rides again today.
Lingfield -
Lingfield make up for a poor afternoon's card by saving the best till last with two competitive handicap races.
17:10 - Best EW's Winter Song 7/1 = LOST & Meridius 7/1 = LOST
The first of only 2 handicap races on the Lingfield card this afternoon & with a decent sized field looks like a tight one to call where a case could be made for a few of them. Two that certainly have plenty in their favour here are Winter Song & Meridius. Starting with the former, this filly ran a good race over C&D last time out finishing 3rd in a similar sized field in class 5 company (class 5 today) also a winner of a 6f class 4 maiden before that. Goes off the same mark today as last time out, looks to have a good chance of making the place money & while the price is available looks well worth the EW play. Meridius also ran a good race last time out over 6f finishing 2nd of 8 in a class 5 handicap off the same mark as today, that one did come on the turf but he has run on the AW before in a maiden when staying on well only to be beaten a neck by odds on fav that day. Should go well back on AW for his second handicap run & is worth the 7/1 EW money.
17:35 - Best EW's Olympic Jule 11/1 = LOST & Perfect Pastime 14/1 = LOST (4/13)
A 14 runner field for this one so like most of those could be trappy contest, lots of them don't really have much to shout about form wise & I personally don't think its worth backing anything at the front of market as they look quite optimistically favoured. Olympic Jule is at a nice price & has some decent AW form so far this year to show including finishing 4 of 11 at Kempton last time out & running 3rd over today's C&D the time before that with her mark 1lb higher than today on both of those occasions, Catherine Gannon has taken both of those rides & is on board today, with every chance of making the frame again at an attractive price. Another one who could ultimately be overpriced & has a squeak of making the frame is Perfect Passtime, doesn't have the most solid form of late but has mainly been running class 4 on the turf. Has had two runs on the AW this year finishing 4/11 & 6/11 respectively in class 5's, goes off 2lb lower today with Seb Sanders up who was on for both of those AW runs this year. In today's company this gelding might just have a chance of making the frame at good EW price of 14/1.
Monday 22nd July 2013 - Daily Tips
Not too much racing on offer today, so I have tried to pick out something that looks of value from every race, where as usually when there are more cards on offer I try to stick to what looks like the few best bets from each card.
Ayr - (mostly very small fields here today so hard to find too many decent EW bets)
14:30 - Best E/W Barney Mcgrew 5/1 = WON (1/7)
7 runner handicap where the favourite is bound to be well supported after winning his last two, but both of those came off a lower weight, that's up another 7lb today & now goes off a mark that is much higher than any of his previous winning marks. So it could pay to side with Barney Mcgrew who was a group 3 winner a few years back & although not shown anywhere near that form recently he has been running over 5 & 6f in class 3 & 4, was raced in a class 5 7f last time & ran a creditable 3/12, down another 1lb today 7 inform jockey Paul Mulrennan takes the ride. Should go well again today & wouldn't need much more than a repeat of his last run to go close here. Worth the EW while the price is available.
15:05 - Grand Diamond 13/8 Win = WON (1/4)
A interesting little 4 runner handicap here where a case could be made for at least 3 of them, however this time I think it is worth siding with the favourite. The deciding factor in that has to be the fact in won over C&D off the same mark a week ago. Up from class 6 to a class 5 but is also ridden by 7lb claiming apprentice (was on the for C&D win latest). As long as the price doesn't go too short it is worth a punt on the nose as there is no reason why this gelding cannot win again off the same mark.
15:40 - Fitz Flyer 9/4 Win = WON (1/4)
Another small field here for this one and again cases can be made for 3 of them, Midnight Dynamo is likely to be popular having won over C&D 2 runs back, however is up to a new mark now & looked to struggle a bit over 6f in class 3 last time out, today's trip will suit & drops to class 4 but the I think the handicapper might just have the better of him off this mark. Its worth taking the chance on Fitz Flyer who admittedly seems to find it hard to win but may have found a gap here. Is slowly coming down the OR & has largely been running in class 2's showing some good place form here & there in big fields. Didn't get a clear run last time out & also didn't benefit from wide draw, Joe Fanning up for the ride today & if this gelding produces one of his better runs he can take a long awaited win.
16:15 - Someone's Darling 11/8 Win = WON (1/4)
Yet again a small field race, Someone's darling looks the best on form & going off lowest weight. She ran a good second off 2lb lower over C&D recently & this looks easier. Has looked in good form this year, while none of the others offer as good immediate form, Someone's Darling looks the best bet.
17:15 - Best EW Script 7/1 = PLACED (3/9) or Hab Reeh 6/1 = LOST
This looks a tight affair & a tight market is sure to confirm that. Script was a good third off the same mark last Thursday & providing this doesn't come too soon this filly can go well again, She was staying on well last time so the step up to 6f today looks as if it could help not hinder. Hab Reeh has some decent form over the trip & in this class, most notably when finishing 2 of 16 at thirsk off just 1lb lower & a repeat of that run could see this gelding go close here. Both looks to have solid chances of making the frame at these prices.
Cartmel -
14:15 - Best Bet Macarthur 3/1 win = LOST (3/9)
This race looks as if it will be settled by the 3 who are grouped tightly at the front of the market; Smart Ruler, Macarthur & Dr Dalwhinny. All have something to offer but I think Macarther brings the most solid form into the race & would be a Ideal EW bet in this field, this price is a bit too short for that but is still worth a small punt on the nose. Finished 2nd of 14 last time out off the same mark, in addition to this put in a good run to finish 2nd over 17f in a class 4 handicap off 4lb lower & should have really won that day but for a poor jump last. Another 2nd has come over 19f so today's 18f could be the one and in this field he could well take the spoils for a first time since hurdling.
14:45 - Best EW Executive Hall 5/1 = WON (1/12)
Hard to find any in this big field that have any form that is really worth getting excited about with none of these winning at any point recently. Executive hall has the most consistent place form of late & looks one of the most likeliest to get up for place money here. 3rd over C&D second to last time out when patiently ridden off a mark of 86, goes off 87 today but is ridden by 7lb claiming apprentice Craig Gallagher. should go well here and has a good chance of making the frame.
15:55 - Alba King 5/4 Win = LOST - Best EW Saddlers Deal 20/1 = LOST (3/7)
Alba King was an eased winner over 16f at southwell 8 days ago & despite being hit with the 7lb penalty, he has won off a higher mark than this over 17f when hurdling so could potentially be good value to win under this penalty now chasing. One at a much bigger price which looks as if it could suprise a few & stake a claim for the place money is Saddlers Deal. Dropped in class today & had his mark reduced by 5lb, running over a trip where he has seen some of his best form. Today could see this experienced gelding put in a big performance.
Beverley -
19:00 - Saint Thomas 7/4 Win
Has a lot in his favour today does Saint Thomas, has real solid form of late not finishing outside of the place money in last 5 starts including finishing 2nd and 3rd both over C&D off the same mark as today. That 2nd came in a class 4, back down to class 5 company today. Franny Norton on board today & she has had the ride on him before reaching place money on both occasions & today does look as if the pair can go one better by being first past the post.
Ayr - (mostly very small fields here today so hard to find too many decent EW bets)
14:30 - Best E/W Barney Mcgrew 5/1 = WON (1/7)
7 runner handicap where the favourite is bound to be well supported after winning his last two, but both of those came off a lower weight, that's up another 7lb today & now goes off a mark that is much higher than any of his previous winning marks. So it could pay to side with Barney Mcgrew who was a group 3 winner a few years back & although not shown anywhere near that form recently he has been running over 5 & 6f in class 3 & 4, was raced in a class 5 7f last time & ran a creditable 3/12, down another 1lb today 7 inform jockey Paul Mulrennan takes the ride. Should go well again today & wouldn't need much more than a repeat of his last run to go close here. Worth the EW while the price is available.
15:05 - Grand Diamond 13/8 Win = WON (1/4)
A interesting little 4 runner handicap here where a case could be made for at least 3 of them, however this time I think it is worth siding with the favourite. The deciding factor in that has to be the fact in won over C&D off the same mark a week ago. Up from class 6 to a class 5 but is also ridden by 7lb claiming apprentice (was on the for C&D win latest). As long as the price doesn't go too short it is worth a punt on the nose as there is no reason why this gelding cannot win again off the same mark.
15:40 - Fitz Flyer 9/4 Win = WON (1/4)
Another small field here for this one and again cases can be made for 3 of them, Midnight Dynamo is likely to be popular having won over C&D 2 runs back, however is up to a new mark now & looked to struggle a bit over 6f in class 3 last time out, today's trip will suit & drops to class 4 but the I think the handicapper might just have the better of him off this mark. Its worth taking the chance on Fitz Flyer who admittedly seems to find it hard to win but may have found a gap here. Is slowly coming down the OR & has largely been running in class 2's showing some good place form here & there in big fields. Didn't get a clear run last time out & also didn't benefit from wide draw, Joe Fanning up for the ride today & if this gelding produces one of his better runs he can take a long awaited win.
16:15 - Someone's Darling 11/8 Win = WON (1/4)
Yet again a small field race, Someone's darling looks the best on form & going off lowest weight. She ran a good second off 2lb lower over C&D recently & this looks easier. Has looked in good form this year, while none of the others offer as good immediate form, Someone's Darling looks the best bet.
17:15 - Best EW Script 7/1 = PLACED (3/9) or Hab Reeh 6/1 = LOST
This looks a tight affair & a tight market is sure to confirm that. Script was a good third off the same mark last Thursday & providing this doesn't come too soon this filly can go well again, She was staying on well last time so the step up to 6f today looks as if it could help not hinder. Hab Reeh has some decent form over the trip & in this class, most notably when finishing 2 of 16 at thirsk off just 1lb lower & a repeat of that run could see this gelding go close here. Both looks to have solid chances of making the frame at these prices.
Cartmel -
14:15 - Best Bet Macarthur 3/1 win = LOST (3/9)
This race looks as if it will be settled by the 3 who are grouped tightly at the front of the market; Smart Ruler, Macarthur & Dr Dalwhinny. All have something to offer but I think Macarther brings the most solid form into the race & would be a Ideal EW bet in this field, this price is a bit too short for that but is still worth a small punt on the nose. Finished 2nd of 14 last time out off the same mark, in addition to this put in a good run to finish 2nd over 17f in a class 4 handicap off 4lb lower & should have really won that day but for a poor jump last. Another 2nd has come over 19f so today's 18f could be the one and in this field he could well take the spoils for a first time since hurdling.
14:45 - Best EW Executive Hall 5/1 = WON (1/12)
Hard to find any in this big field that have any form that is really worth getting excited about with none of these winning at any point recently. Executive hall has the most consistent place form of late & looks one of the most likeliest to get up for place money here. 3rd over C&D second to last time out when patiently ridden off a mark of 86, goes off 87 today but is ridden by 7lb claiming apprentice Craig Gallagher. should go well here and has a good chance of making the frame.
15:55 - Alba King 5/4 Win = LOST - Best EW Saddlers Deal 20/1 = LOST (3/7)
Alba King was an eased winner over 16f at southwell 8 days ago & despite being hit with the 7lb penalty, he has won off a higher mark than this over 17f when hurdling so could potentially be good value to win under this penalty now chasing. One at a much bigger price which looks as if it could suprise a few & stake a claim for the place money is Saddlers Deal. Dropped in class today & had his mark reduced by 5lb, running over a trip where he has seen some of his best form. Today could see this experienced gelding put in a big performance.
Beverley -
19:00 - Saint Thomas 7/4 Win
Has a lot in his favour today does Saint Thomas, has real solid form of late not finishing outside of the place money in last 5 starts including finishing 2nd and 3rd both over C&D off the same mark as today. That 2nd came in a class 4, back down to class 5 company today. Franny Norton on board today & she has had the ride on him before reaching place money on both occasions & today does look as if the pair can go one better by being first past the post.
Saturday 20th July 2013 - Daily Tips
Saturday arrives & brings with it a big day of racing with lots of meetings on offer and some better class racing than we have been treated to during the week. We have picked out a selection of bets that look to be representing good value so here they are;
Newmarket -
15:40 - Im So Glad 5/1 EW = LOST
Backed Im So Glad last Saturday here at Newmarket where she ran a very creditably 3rd in a big field class 2 handicapp & returned nice E/W money as 25/1 shot, she is well worth another again all be it at the shorter odds today. She's got a good record here at Newmarket & last weekends run looks as though she could really benefit from today's drop back to 6f, going off only 1lb higher & ridden by the same useful apprentice claiming 3lb it looks as though another big run should be on the cards.
16:50 - Goldream 11/4 Win = LOST (4/7)
On the back on two decent runs in class 2 handicaps over today's trip finishing 6/19 & 2/15, looks the most appealing on that evidence baring in mind this race is class 3, comes down 1lb from that last race & is only 2lb higher than a somewhat unlucky second in a big field class 2 at york. while this gelding looks to go off as favourite while the price is at 11/4 this looks decent value as there is no reason why it shouldn't put it in a bold effort.
17:20 - Tha'ir 9/2 E/W = Win (1/6)
While this looks a tight contest with the market sure to confirm that, the majority of these runners are coming up the weights so I have sided with the Godolphin runner Tha'ir who is coming down in the weights. In fairness looked outclassed in a group 2 event at Royal Ascot recently but this today is a lot easier and having run a close second over C&D in class 1 listed race off 9lb higher second to last time out it looks as though it is well worth having a small play here considering this is a class 2 handicap.
Ripon -
15:10 - Flashlight 5/1 E/W = PLACED (3/9)
Looks a fairly tight one to call but Flashlight is the one that makes most E/W appeal. Has run his last 6 races in class 2 handicaps varying in trip from 6f to 8f, dropped into a class 4 today & now going off his lowest mark for a while he might jut have found a gap in which to lay down a big run. While the E/W is available he is worth a small punt.
16:20 - Demolition 14/1 E/W = NON RUNNER
Small E/W here. This old boy has been showing some ok form over today's trip of late, best of which a C&D 3rd in may off 1lb higher and if you back a long time he has some good form in higher classes. Has been as high as 94 in terms of his mark and is now down to 81 & ridden by apprentice Joey Haynes who claims 7lb so this could potentially see him well weighted & could well be in with a shot at the place money at a really nice price.
16:55 - Fossgate 8/1 E/W = LOST (7/10)
Another smallish E/W play here. All be that the favourite has looked progressive and is well backed again i feel under another rise it may not be able to replicate such a good run. Old timer Fossgate is a C&D winner from last year, that was off a similar mark as today & has been coming back down the OR for a little while and looks potentially of a lenient mark here. Graham Lee booked for the ride & the two times he's been on before Fossgate has finished 1st & 2nd both over C&D so this is enough to perhaps suggest today could be a decent run.
Newbury -
15:50 - Alutiq 6/1 E/W = LOST (5/24) & Lexington Rose 10/1 E/W = LOST (22/24)
A big field 2 year old race here and with the majority of the runners stepping up to today's class 2 it looks as if the safest E/W play is to go with something that has solid form in this class. With it being a big field, 2 have been picked out. Of course these runners are going to be at the front end of the market but with a big field like these nothing is going to be too short. Alutiq looks in really good nick having ran a very creditable 7 of 23 in a group 2 event at Royal Ascot a few weeks back & this filly also has winning form here at Newbury, together with the fact that she is one of the lowest weights in the race make her a real sound prospect of reaching the place money and while the 6/1 price is available she is well worth the E/W punt. Lexington Rose has some solid form in both class 1 and 2 events finishing 4th & 2nd respectively and was also a winner of a class 3 race last time out beating one of today's rivals in the process, she too runs off one of the lowest weights in the race so at a price of 10/1 she looks decent value and can hopefully stake a good claim for the places.
Curragh -
16:10 - Saratoga Baby 10/1 E/W = PLACED (2/9)
One true love bound to be popular in the market as is in O'brien trained/ridden runner, however it could well pay to side with Saratoga Baby who looks great E/W value. Has had some really solid form at Curragh including a good win in a big field handicap in may all be it off a lower mark. Finished 10/21 5 lengths off the winner here last time out but was poorly drawn in a big field handicap. Goes off same mark today but is ridden by apprentice R P Whelan who claims 3lb, he has teamed up well with this one before including that win here in may. While the price is high it is definitely worth a little E/W punt.
16:40 - Jallota 3/1 = 4th & Oklahoma City 6/4 = 2nd - Reverse Forecast = LOST
2 year old group 3 time here, Mick Channon's runner Jallota comes off the back of two promising group 2 runs & looks as if there is no reason why it shouldn't go well again, while the O'brien runner Oklahoma City was an emphatic 13L winner of a maiden last time out so will be very well supported. These two looks the pair to focus on so I've gone for a reverse forecast here as they are both relatively short priced.
17:40 - Gordon Lord Byron 13/8 Win = LOST (2/6)
Once again an O'brien runner Darwin looks as if he will head the betting however, he hasn't yet proved himself as a top group performer since his arrival from the USA and although he may do that today I would rather go with the proven performer that is Gordon Lord Byron. T Hogan's gelding ran a very good race in group 1 at royal Ascot finishing 4 of 18 4 lengths behind winner lethal force who is arguably the best sprinter in Europe so that form looks as if it should transfer well here, also ran an impressive 3/17 in a group 2 before that run so this gelding has proved he has the credentials to perform at group level and this could well be his gap to strike. All in all Looks the value bet for the win in this race.
18:15 Irish Oaks - Talent 11/4 = LOST Win & Just Pretending 12/1 E/W = PLACED (3/8)
Talent improved well for a 10f class 1 listed win at Newmarket in may before winning the Epsom Oaks over 12f in good fashion & looks as if he could be the sort to follow up and take the Irish oaks even though she has had her official mark hiked up to 114, he did look like a top quality group one horse when winning at Epsom so this filly could easily take this in her stride and win here and looks better off than co fav Riposte seen as though she wasn't as a good a winner at royal Ascot and her mark has been raised by more. Of the rest the O'brien trained Just Pretending looks good value for a place a 12/1 & she is the pick of 3 O'brien trained horses by son Joseph O'brien. Ran second to riposte at Royal Ascot however, she remains off the same mark which could see her run another decent race & all the time the price is as high as 12/1 she looks worth the E/W.
Market Rasen -
14:20 - Swampfire 11/2 E/W = LOST (4/6)
Gonna take a bit of a chance here but this looks a fair value bet as Swampfire last time out in this class ran a creditable 3rd & looked as if he would benefit from today's further 2f. The two that beat him home that day are both in this race (First in the Que & Va'vite) but I think over the further trip he could reverse the placings as the other 2 have both upped in weight and Swampfire goes off the same mark. Although the places are only 2 I think at the price its worth an E/W because he looks to have a great chance of being at the head of field.
15:30 - Buck Milligan 12/1 E/W = LOST (9/16)
Just another small E/W punt in a race that looks very competitive and hard to side with anything too strongly. One thing Buck Milligan certainly has on his side is consistency over fences & today could just be his time to shine. Ran a solid second last time out of 3lb lower and has plenty of solid place form if you look back over figures, finished 5th in this race last year off 132, goes off 135 today but is ridden by 3lb claiming apprentice Adam Wedge so looks well in & at 12/1 he looks good value for reaching the place money.
Haydock -
20:30 - Jullundar 9/2 EW =
Jullundar has ran 2 good races finishing second in both since the addition of a visor & looks of a lenient mark so today could potentially be the gap for this Mich Channon colt too strike, The price is fairly short but just about ok for an EW.
Newmarket -
15:40 - Im So Glad 5/1 EW = LOST
Backed Im So Glad last Saturday here at Newmarket where she ran a very creditably 3rd in a big field class 2 handicapp & returned nice E/W money as 25/1 shot, she is well worth another again all be it at the shorter odds today. She's got a good record here at Newmarket & last weekends run looks as though she could really benefit from today's drop back to 6f, going off only 1lb higher & ridden by the same useful apprentice claiming 3lb it looks as though another big run should be on the cards.
16:50 - Goldream 11/4 Win = LOST (4/7)
On the back on two decent runs in class 2 handicaps over today's trip finishing 6/19 & 2/15, looks the most appealing on that evidence baring in mind this race is class 3, comes down 1lb from that last race & is only 2lb higher than a somewhat unlucky second in a big field class 2 at york. while this gelding looks to go off as favourite while the price is at 11/4 this looks decent value as there is no reason why it shouldn't put it in a bold effort.
17:20 - Tha'ir 9/2 E/W = Win (1/6)
While this looks a tight contest with the market sure to confirm that, the majority of these runners are coming up the weights so I have sided with the Godolphin runner Tha'ir who is coming down in the weights. In fairness looked outclassed in a group 2 event at Royal Ascot recently but this today is a lot easier and having run a close second over C&D in class 1 listed race off 9lb higher second to last time out it looks as though it is well worth having a small play here considering this is a class 2 handicap.
Ripon -
15:10 - Flashlight 5/1 E/W = PLACED (3/9)
Looks a fairly tight one to call but Flashlight is the one that makes most E/W appeal. Has run his last 6 races in class 2 handicaps varying in trip from 6f to 8f, dropped into a class 4 today & now going off his lowest mark for a while he might jut have found a gap in which to lay down a big run. While the E/W is available he is worth a small punt.
16:20 - Demolition 14/1 E/W = NON RUNNER
Small E/W here. This old boy has been showing some ok form over today's trip of late, best of which a C&D 3rd in may off 1lb higher and if you back a long time he has some good form in higher classes. Has been as high as 94 in terms of his mark and is now down to 81 & ridden by apprentice Joey Haynes who claims 7lb so this could potentially see him well weighted & could well be in with a shot at the place money at a really nice price.
16:55 - Fossgate 8/1 E/W = LOST (7/10)
Another smallish E/W play here. All be that the favourite has looked progressive and is well backed again i feel under another rise it may not be able to replicate such a good run. Old timer Fossgate is a C&D winner from last year, that was off a similar mark as today & has been coming back down the OR for a little while and looks potentially of a lenient mark here. Graham Lee booked for the ride & the two times he's been on before Fossgate has finished 1st & 2nd both over C&D so this is enough to perhaps suggest today could be a decent run.
Newbury -
15:50 - Alutiq 6/1 E/W = LOST (5/24) & Lexington Rose 10/1 E/W = LOST (22/24)
A big field 2 year old race here and with the majority of the runners stepping up to today's class 2 it looks as if the safest E/W play is to go with something that has solid form in this class. With it being a big field, 2 have been picked out. Of course these runners are going to be at the front end of the market but with a big field like these nothing is going to be too short. Alutiq looks in really good nick having ran a very creditable 7 of 23 in a group 2 event at Royal Ascot a few weeks back & this filly also has winning form here at Newbury, together with the fact that she is one of the lowest weights in the race make her a real sound prospect of reaching the place money and while the 6/1 price is available she is well worth the E/W punt. Lexington Rose has some solid form in both class 1 and 2 events finishing 4th & 2nd respectively and was also a winner of a class 3 race last time out beating one of today's rivals in the process, she too runs off one of the lowest weights in the race so at a price of 10/1 she looks decent value and can hopefully stake a good claim for the places.
Curragh -
16:10 - Saratoga Baby 10/1 E/W = PLACED (2/9)
One true love bound to be popular in the market as is in O'brien trained/ridden runner, however it could well pay to side with Saratoga Baby who looks great E/W value. Has had some really solid form at Curragh including a good win in a big field handicap in may all be it off a lower mark. Finished 10/21 5 lengths off the winner here last time out but was poorly drawn in a big field handicap. Goes off same mark today but is ridden by apprentice R P Whelan who claims 3lb, he has teamed up well with this one before including that win here in may. While the price is high it is definitely worth a little E/W punt.
16:40 - Jallota 3/1 = 4th & Oklahoma City 6/4 = 2nd - Reverse Forecast = LOST
2 year old group 3 time here, Mick Channon's runner Jallota comes off the back of two promising group 2 runs & looks as if there is no reason why it shouldn't go well again, while the O'brien runner Oklahoma City was an emphatic 13L winner of a maiden last time out so will be very well supported. These two looks the pair to focus on so I've gone for a reverse forecast here as they are both relatively short priced.
17:40 - Gordon Lord Byron 13/8 Win = LOST (2/6)
Once again an O'brien runner Darwin looks as if he will head the betting however, he hasn't yet proved himself as a top group performer since his arrival from the USA and although he may do that today I would rather go with the proven performer that is Gordon Lord Byron. T Hogan's gelding ran a very good race in group 1 at royal Ascot finishing 4 of 18 4 lengths behind winner lethal force who is arguably the best sprinter in Europe so that form looks as if it should transfer well here, also ran an impressive 3/17 in a group 2 before that run so this gelding has proved he has the credentials to perform at group level and this could well be his gap to strike. All in all Looks the value bet for the win in this race.
18:15 Irish Oaks - Talent 11/4 = LOST Win & Just Pretending 12/1 E/W = PLACED (3/8)
Talent improved well for a 10f class 1 listed win at Newmarket in may before winning the Epsom Oaks over 12f in good fashion & looks as if he could be the sort to follow up and take the Irish oaks even though she has had her official mark hiked up to 114, he did look like a top quality group one horse when winning at Epsom so this filly could easily take this in her stride and win here and looks better off than co fav Riposte seen as though she wasn't as a good a winner at royal Ascot and her mark has been raised by more. Of the rest the O'brien trained Just Pretending looks good value for a place a 12/1 & she is the pick of 3 O'brien trained horses by son Joseph O'brien. Ran second to riposte at Royal Ascot however, she remains off the same mark which could see her run another decent race & all the time the price is as high as 12/1 she looks worth the E/W.
Market Rasen -
14:20 - Swampfire 11/2 E/W = LOST (4/6)
Gonna take a bit of a chance here but this looks a fair value bet as Swampfire last time out in this class ran a creditable 3rd & looked as if he would benefit from today's further 2f. The two that beat him home that day are both in this race (First in the Que & Va'vite) but I think over the further trip he could reverse the placings as the other 2 have both upped in weight and Swampfire goes off the same mark. Although the places are only 2 I think at the price its worth an E/W because he looks to have a great chance of being at the head of field.
15:30 - Buck Milligan 12/1 E/W = LOST (9/16)
Just another small E/W punt in a race that looks very competitive and hard to side with anything too strongly. One thing Buck Milligan certainly has on his side is consistency over fences & today could just be his time to shine. Ran a solid second last time out of 3lb lower and has plenty of solid place form if you look back over figures, finished 5th in this race last year off 132, goes off 135 today but is ridden by 3lb claiming apprentice Adam Wedge so looks well in & at 12/1 he looks good value for reaching the place money.
Haydock -
20:30 - Jullundar 9/2 EW =
Jullundar has ran 2 good races finishing second in both since the addition of a visor & looks of a lenient mark so today could potentially be the gap for this Mich Channon colt too strike, The price is fairly short but just about ok for an EW.
Thursday 18th July 2013 - Daily Tips
Certainly not much quality racing on offer at the moment and whilst the finest racing is not on offer it is wise that stakes are not too high, however we do have a few picks for today that look of decent value all things considered.
Hamilton -
Leicester -
17:10 - Powerful Pierre 7/1 - Each Way = LOST (5/8)
Powerful Pierre returns to a class 6 6f race today for this apprentice handicap and could benefit from it, been running mainly over 7f of late and in class 5 so both those changes here should suit. has some decent form over this trip and on today's ground, slowly creeping down the OR and is now down to its lowest mark since April which it won off in a class 6 race (59). so hoping the drop in class/trip and the drop in the OR could bring about a good run here, looking a fair E/W price.
Brighton -
16:50 - The Name is Frank 13/2 - Each Way = LOST (5/10)
Ran a creditable 2nd last time out at bath and just couldn't go with the winner at the end, that was over 6f so today's drop back to 5f looks as if it could suit well. That good showing last time out came in a class 5 race so drops back to a class 6 today off the same mark of 54, combined with the fact its ridden by handy 7lb claimer Oisin Murphy means that this horse looks a good value EW bet at his price of around 13/2.
Hamilton -
14:30 - Sunraider 7/4 - Win = LOST (2/4)
Sunraider definitely looks like the one to focus on here. This gelding has been in solid form of late which includes a good win over C&D off 5 lb lower, he was able to follow that up with a creditable 3rd at perth last time out off today's mark of 80 finishing in front of what looks like today's main challenger Hopes & Dreams. All in all with this one being a claimer it looks as if this is Sunraider's race to lose.
16:00 - Street Artist 7/1 - Each Way = LOST (6/8)
With lots of these runners stepping up in class it could pay to side with the E/W chance that is Street Artist. Drops back into a class 4 today after having its last run in a class 2 where it finished midfield (5/9) going off a 1lb lower in the official ratings today and being tried in first time blinkers could help to spark a big run and has solid claims of making the frame at this decent price of 7/1.
16:30 - Ingenti 6/1 - Each Way = WON (1/11) & Chloe's Dream 5/1 - Each Way = PLACED (2/11)
Bigger field up for this one and the market looks fairly open, best to find something with the E/W value and I think we have two runners here that do just that, fairly short prices for E/W but both looks to have very solid claims of making the frame so the price looks fair. Ingenti has some solid form over the trip and in the class and most of that form has come off a higher mark. Ran a creditable 4/10 last time out off today's mark of 57 however, today is ridden by 7lb claimer so this could make all the difference and see this mare at least go one better and make the frame. Secondly Chloe's Dream has been showing some real solid form which has seen her take place money from 5 of her last 7 runs, most of them coming off a slightly higher mark of 60 (goes off 59 today). She ran a creditable 3rd here at Hamilton at the weekend and providing this run doesn't come to soon after that she should be right up there knocking on the door once again.
Leicester -
17:10 - Powerful Pierre 7/1 - Each Way = LOST (5/8)
Powerful Pierre returns to a class 6 6f race today for this apprentice handicap and could benefit from it, been running mainly over 7f of late and in class 5 so both those changes here should suit. has some decent form over this trip and on today's ground, slowly creeping down the OR and is now down to its lowest mark since April which it won off in a class 6 race (59). so hoping the drop in class/trip and the drop in the OR could bring about a good run here, looking a fair E/W price.
Brighton -
16:50 - The Name is Frank 13/2 - Each Way = LOST (5/10)
Ran a creditable 2nd last time out at bath and just couldn't go with the winner at the end, that was over 6f so today's drop back to 5f looks as if it could suit well. That good showing last time out came in a class 5 race so drops back to a class 6 today off the same mark of 54, combined with the fact its ridden by handy 7lb claimer Oisin Murphy means that this horse looks a good value EW bet at his price of around 13/2.
Wednesday 17th July 2013 - Daily Tips
As said before we are still getting up and running so this week there wont be an awful lot of coverage. Having missed today's racing there is just one each way pick for this evenings cards and it comes in the last a Worcester.
Worcester -
21:00 - George Woolf 7/1- Each Way = Lost (4/8)
An 8 runner handicap hurdle raps up the card here at Worcester tonight and the market looks fairly open, the one that catches the eye as a good E/W bet though is George Woolf. Running over 20f tonight which is the trip where it has shown it's best form and also showing best form when ridden by Richard Johnson who is aboard tonight, ran a good 2nd over the trip and same conditions as tonight's race at the end of last season off a mark of 115, down to 113 tonight and while it hasn't produced its best form this season after coming back from a break I'm hoping a return to what looks like a better trip and off a slightly lower mark help to spark a big run.
Monday 15th July 2013 - Daily Tips
At the moment as we are just getting things up and running we won't be covering too much racing during the week. Wasn't going to be covering anything today but have had a request to pick out a few tips for the evening card at Wolverhampton so here they are....
Wolverhampton
Not the best racing on the card here tonight but I think there are a few picks that are worth a bet.
19:50 - Future Reference 2/1 - Win = Won (1/11) & Exzachary 25/1 - Each Way = Placed (2/11)
Future Reference goes into this one a relatively short priced favourite and judging on the field I think this is justifiable, coming from the world re-nowned godolfin stable this S Bin Suroor trained gelding looks well in off his current mark of 72 and has been showing some decent form on the all weather surface of late, most notably finishing 2/9 over tonight's trip of 7f on the AW at Kempton a few runs back off a similar mark and racing in a class higher that night (class 4) back down to a class 5 tonight and I think he looks a good bet to go one better than his previous two runs and take the spoils here tonight. For those looking for a horse with a good chance at a bigger price then Exzachary could well be the one to prove the biggest challenger to the favourite here. Jo hughes' gelding does have a decent run behind her off tonight's mark of 73 when finishing second at kempton over the trip and in the same class race a few runs back and perhaps the biggest tempter to get involved tonight is the fact that she is ridden by 5lb claimer Phillip Prince so essentially Exzachary is running off a career low mark of 68 which I believe gives him a much bigger chance of making the frame here than his 25/1 price tag suggests.
20:20 - Langley 5/1 - Win = Won (1/10) & Art Thief 14/1 - Each Way = Lost (5/10)
Again not the best type of race that your ever going to see but there are still a couple of runners here that are worth a small punt. Langley definitely looks one of the strongest runners and is a nice enough price to have a little punt on the nose here, there is one run of note in a handicap under the same conditions as tonight where he ran off a mark of 60 with a 7lb claimer an ran a creditable third. This is from that I think could transfer well into tonight's race, with this only being a claiming race and now going off a career low mark of 56 and also being ridden by 7lb claimer Oisin Murphy make Langley overpriced in my opinion at 5/1 as id be very surprised if he doesn't go real close. Art Thief is another one here he could be overpriced, although he hasn't enjoyed the best time of late if you go back a few seasons he does has some really strong form at Wolverhampton over tonight's trip. He's been coming down in the official ratings lately and this could perhaps spark some of his old form here tonight.
Saturday 13th July 2013 - Daily Tips
Saturday 13 July 2013
Right here we have it, first day of tips/analysis and as we are just starting out for the moment we won't be covering all races but will be selecting a few picks that represent good value, of course as we go on the coverage will become greater and if there is anything particular that you wish to ask me to give an opinion on then please don't hesitate. So just a few for today here they are -
Newmarket
15:15 - I'm So Glad 25/1 - Each Way = Place (3/19)
This looks like it should be a tight affair like many big field handicaps. Lots of potential winners here however one that catches the eye as really good value is Mick Channon's runner I'm So Glad, admittedly she hasn't had the best 2013, having said this she has been running over various shorter trips and the return to 7f looks like it should suit considering she won two 7f races here at Newmarket off a similar official rating and in the same class with the ground GF (as it is today) towards the end of last season. Charles Bishop rode for both of those two victories and he is once again aboard today and is claiming 3lb. Taken all this into account she looks to be a very good value each way punt and I think this filly has much more of a chance of making the frame than her 25/1 price tag suggests.
York
15:30 - Jwala 16/1 - Each Way = Won (1/9)
Heeraat looks as if its going to go in as a short priced favourite for this one and I think that this is slightly unjust, although he ran a credible 6th in a big field at Royal Ascot on his latest appearance and does have steady form figures for his previous runs I dont think going off the same mark of 107 today as that Ascot run merits his shortish price tag. So the value looks to be with something that solid each way claims and I think Jwala has just that, this filly is on the back of two good runs over the trip in the same class races as today and finishing second in both of these means that the 16/1 price tag could prove to be incredibly generous considering she is off the same mark of 101. At this price Jwala looks a really good each way bet which represents solid value.
16:40 Wyborne 12/1 - Each way = Lost (5/14) & Eagle Rock 10/1 - Each Way = Won (1/14)
This is another race where the red hot favourite Big Time Billy looks like it is going to be well backed, this is somewhat confusing to me, while it did win really well last time out it has been slapped with a 12lb increase and I just think that is almost definitely enough to see it run nowhere near as commanding as last time out. there are a couple here at nice prices that could well be worth the E/W money. Starting with Wyborne who was third behind today's fav Big Time Billy and stayed on well towards the finish but unlike the fav goes off the same mark of 80 today, which I think gives him a much better chance of running well and getting in the frame. Secondly and perhaps the stronger of the two picks here is the Franny Norton ridden Eagle Rock, who is a horse that is slowly creeping down the ratings and this could well be his time to strike. it has been running over a mixture of trips of late but does have some steady form over today's trip of 16f off higher marks, this together with his appealing price tag make Eagle Rock a sound each way prospect.
Right here we have it, first day of tips/analysis and as we are just starting out for the moment we won't be covering all races but will be selecting a few picks that represent good value, of course as we go on the coverage will become greater and if there is anything particular that you wish to ask me to give an opinion on then please don't hesitate. So just a few for today here they are -
Newmarket
15:15 - I'm So Glad 25/1 - Each Way = Place (3/19)
This looks like it should be a tight affair like many big field handicaps. Lots of potential winners here however one that catches the eye as really good value is Mick Channon's runner I'm So Glad, admittedly she hasn't had the best 2013, having said this she has been running over various shorter trips and the return to 7f looks like it should suit considering she won two 7f races here at Newmarket off a similar official rating and in the same class with the ground GF (as it is today) towards the end of last season. Charles Bishop rode for both of those two victories and he is once again aboard today and is claiming 3lb. Taken all this into account she looks to be a very good value each way punt and I think this filly has much more of a chance of making the frame than her 25/1 price tag suggests.
York
15:30 - Jwala 16/1 - Each Way = Won (1/9)
Heeraat looks as if its going to go in as a short priced favourite for this one and I think that this is slightly unjust, although he ran a credible 6th in a big field at Royal Ascot on his latest appearance and does have steady form figures for his previous runs I dont think going off the same mark of 107 today as that Ascot run merits his shortish price tag. So the value looks to be with something that solid each way claims and I think Jwala has just that, this filly is on the back of two good runs over the trip in the same class races as today and finishing second in both of these means that the 16/1 price tag could prove to be incredibly generous considering she is off the same mark of 101. At this price Jwala looks a really good each way bet which represents solid value.
16:40 Wyborne 12/1 - Each way = Lost (5/14) & Eagle Rock 10/1 - Each Way = Won (1/14)
This is another race where the red hot favourite Big Time Billy looks like it is going to be well backed, this is somewhat confusing to me, while it did win really well last time out it has been slapped with a 12lb increase and I just think that is almost definitely enough to see it run nowhere near as commanding as last time out. there are a couple here at nice prices that could well be worth the E/W money. Starting with Wyborne who was third behind today's fav Big Time Billy and stayed on well towards the finish but unlike the fav goes off the same mark of 80 today, which I think gives him a much better chance of running well and getting in the frame. Secondly and perhaps the stronger of the two picks here is the Franny Norton ridden Eagle Rock, who is a horse that is slowly creeping down the ratings and this could well be his time to strike. it has been running over a mixture of trips of late but does have some steady form over today's trip of 16f off higher marks, this together with his appealing price tag make Eagle Rock a sound each way prospect.
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