Thursday 31st October 2013

As to be expected for this time of year, not a lot going & from a sensible point of view today looks a day best watched in total honesty. Yesterday's selection ran poorly & was unable to confirm some good recent form, was only advised as a smallish punt so not the end of the world. On the whole this month has been a success & has brought about very healthy profit for the 4th month running since starting up. Glad to see plenty of people involved & have been getting plenty of good feedback over twitter so that is appreciated. as mentioned a few times before this is a difficult time of year punting wise as the flat season has come to a close & the NH season is just kicking off so could be a quiet one in terms of selection for a few weeks. See below a break down on this months results.

13 Tips 'to win' = 10 WINNERS  (a strike rate of 76.92%)

5 Tips 'each way' = 1 WINNER & 2 PLACED 

Monthly Profit & Loss -

October 2013 (10 days of tips) (18 total selections) = + 104 points (my actual profit)

Alternatively for a £10 level stake on all tips (18 tips in total) (£5 EW on each way picks) the return would be = + £178.66 profit 

Wednesday 30th October 2013 - Daily Tips

Well yesterday was the first day with any involvement for a few days & it could have been a winning one with TATTING 9/2 EW who ended up finishing second, but  whom missed the break at the start & therfore surrendered any good position in the running, forced to go widest of all & ran on strongly to finish up second a length behind the winner & im sure im not the only one who feel had he got the right start & been able to take up a better position he could have easily won given the turn of foot he showed in the last 2 furlongs to come from right out the back, not the end of the world as 9/2 EW meant stake returned but still a little disappointing none the less given the run. Onto today & it looks another day best watched on the whole, there is one bet at Carlisle which does look of interest & looks worth a small investment on a day where nothing really serious seems viable.

Carlisle -

15:50 SWALEDALE LAD 10/3 WIN = LOST

This 6 year old gelding has taken to fences pretty well this season & is yet to finish outside the top 3. He looks to have come on from each run so far & there is nothing to say he couldn't come on further. Last time out over today's trip of 2 miles & in the same class 3 company was probably his best show over fences when he was beaten 3 & a bit lengths into 2nd by a really well fancied Charlie Longsdon runner so didn't lose anything in defeat & was 11 lengths clear of the remainder. That run last time out came on good ground & a return to forecast soft ground here looks a positive since he was twice a good winner over hurdles on ground worse than good (once soft, once heavy) so that should play to his strengths. The majority of the field are attempting fences for the first time here today so his has an experience edge over the majority of his rivals & while a few of the competitors were pretty decent over hurdles they may just need this first run now tackling the larger obstacles. Most of the field are also making their seasonal reappearance today so again may just need this first run before they get really competitive, where as SWALEDALE LAD posted a good effort over fences just under 3 weeks ago. The one to fear the most could be Blackwater King who is likely to be popular in the market & has some decent form over timber, running for the powerful Mccain yard could be ready to go well first time over fences but in my eyes SWALEDALE LAD's experience (decent experience at that) makes him a stronger candidate. SWALEDALE would be carrying top weight but regular conditional rider Harry Shalloner takes off 5lb so he looks nicely weighted. All in all SWALEDALE LAD comes with the most experience profile & with conditions that look very much to suit he looks capable of posting a good effort. While this is perhaps the sort of bet i would usually advise EW it doesn't look like he will be a market drifter & should be well supported so at an early price of 10/3 he looks worth a smallish punt on the nose.

Tuesday 29th October 2013 - Daily Tips

Well its been a quiet few days on the betting front & today isn't much different, there were a few i liked today but for one reason or another most look best watched. Have gone for one pick tonight at Wolverhampton who looks as though can go well.

Wolverhampton -

19:10 - TATTING EW 9/2 = PLACED (2nd)

There are probably a few here who people could make a case for one way or another but for me the one who stands out the most is recent C&D double winner TATTING. Personally i think he can be forgiven a weak run when finishing 5th last time out in his hat-trick bid, he was carrying second top weight & was giving away around a stone in weight to the 4 who finished in front of him. Tonights race looks under more favourable conditions, has won 3 times over C&D in the last 2 months & most impressively was perhaps the latest win in a class 5 18 days ago, all throughout that race he travelled strongly & was able to assert clear inside the final furlong when asked. The horse he beat that day (Golden Jubilee) goes again in this one & while he is certain to be popular in the market i see no real reason why he should be reversing form with TATTING, who carried 6lb more than Golden Jubilee last time & while TATTING's rating means he would have to carry 5lb more tonight he will only carry 1lb more due to his apprentice claiming rider, so overall he looks to be weighted better with a rival that he saw off without too much trouble last time. This is a handicap race so there could be a few who are able to improve off lower weights but overall for me TATTING comes into this one with the strongest profile & if he can replicate some of his impressive C&D form of late under 7lb claiming Jennifer Ferguson he could certainly go close tonight & looks worth a punt EW.

Saturday 26th October 2013

Today will be left alone from me, this is down to a combination of plenty of big fields, the poor weather & the fact that the majority of today's cards are over the jumps, where most the of the runners will be making their seasonal reappearances, which can always throw down plenty of uncertainty. So all in all from a real serious punting point of view the day looks best watched. Regular readers will know that i am often inclined not to get involved on saturday action & although the majority of the best racing occurs on saturday's, this certainly doesn't mean its the best action from a betting point of view considering there are generally plenty of hard to call races & big fields, so a lot of the time the racing should be enjoyed for what it is & left alone from a betting point of view. It's been a quiet week & like is said before this is only natural around this time of year, however it has still been a very profitable one with only 3 selections (all on thursday) returning two winners at 5/6 & 10/1. Will be doing the research as always & if anything looks viable over the next few days it will be posted on the blog as usual. Good luck if any of you do get involved in today's action but be definitely be cautious.

Thursday 24th October 2013 - Daily Tips

Having gone through today's cards it looks another poor day for the most, however there does look to be a few selections that catch the eye & look worth the bet.

Southwell -

16:40 - COUSIN GUILLAUME 5/2 WIN = LOST (3rd)

Karen Mclintocks 4 yo gelding comes into this for just his second start after a promising debut run (finishing 3rd) over 2 miles 1 furlong at Kelso back at the start of October. Considering that was his debut he shaped pretty well to finish 3rd of 12 & seemed to know his job 7 finishing 6 lengths clear of the field. That race came in a class 5, now drops into a class 6. The drop back from 17f to 16f doesn't look as though it should inconvenience him. The main concern would have to be that he hasn't faced easing ground but considering he is entered around this time of year would suggest it might not be too much of a problem but nevertheless it does have to be a slight worry. Of those runners with form he definitely looks the strongest considering he posted a decent effort in what looks a stronger race than any other runners else in the race have encountered. The booking of Richard Johnson is always an added positive also. A couple of the debutants could have something to offer & the market is certainly getting behind the points winner Truckers Steal who makes his rules debut. For me though considering COUSIN GUILLAUMES debut run in a class 5 showed plenty of promise, he would be a worthy favourite so the fact that he is a 5/2 second fav in the early market means he is of some value & if taking to the soft ground could run a decent race & go close. Overall considering all the hard evidence he looks worth a small punt.

Wolverhampton -

17:40 - DARING DRAGON WIN 5/6 = WON

This Ed Walker trained gelding comes into this race for just his 4th appearance & has shaped with definite promise on his last two outings finishing 2nd on both of those occasions. Last time out over C&D he finished a 3/4 length second behind an odds on Roger Varian trained favourite. Considering that was his first run for 289 days he was certainly not disgraced & finished a clear 6 lengths ahead of the remainder of the field. That first run for a long while could have definitely sharpened him up & coming into this one he looks to have been found a very good opportunity to lay down a big challenge once more. The opposition faced today don't really look any more appealing than those he beat home last time out & of the other runners those who look the main dangers are Tiger Jim & Speedfit Boy. The latter has posted some placed efforts in weak handicaps but has had plenty of chances to get off the mark & is also yet to be raced on the AW, so all in all he looks vulnerable to a less exposed sort such as DARING DRAGON, Tiger Jim has only had the one run where he stayed on over 8f at Kempton to finish 4th & the manner in which he did so would suggest that he will perhaps be suited by further & the drop back to 7f doesn't look an obvious positive. It is possible to judge these wrong but all things considered DARING DRAGON brings the most solid credentials forward & if repeating his effort from last time out he could go close once more. Despite the short price still looks worth the bet.

18:10 - PRIGSNOV DANCER E/W 9/1(10/1 SP) = WON

Class 7 handicap here over 7 furlongs & there are certainly quite a few who would make appeal for one reason or another, but on that does stand out at a decent price is PRIGSNOV DANCER. DJ Sandersons 8 year old gelding has been running consistently of late in handicaps, posting two 2nds & two 3rds in his last 4 runs. His second to last run came here at Wolves & he ran a decent 2nd over 6 furlongs. He kept on well that day to finish second close home so the extra furlong here could be a positive. On the whole that race & indeed his other recent runs have come against higher rated horses than facing tonight. Like with most handicaps there are plenty of runners who could go well but if PRIGSNOV DANCER can maintain his good recent form then he can go well again under his 7lb claiming jockey, 9/1 looks a nice price & looks well worth a small punt on him to reach the place money.

Wednesday 23rd September

Unfortunately another day with no involvement from me. With the flat season all but over now & the National Hunt season just beginning to take off makes it a difficult time of year in terms of punting in my eyes, plenty of horses are making their seasonal reappearances & horses who have been running of late are faced with the prospect of going on ground that they may not have faced during the summer as a result of the weather changes, therefore there are questions mark over the majority of runners on days like these & it is worth being cautious. There will no doubt be plenty of people with an array of tips today & i myself could throw in a few that i liked, but whom have question marks over them but, this really isn't my style. Regular readers will know that i am happy to sit out the days where i don't feel totally confident in any selections & while this is not ideal i believe it has certainly contributed to my healthy profit record. Will be doing the work for tomorrow & friday's cards so hopefully will decide upon a few bets that look viable.

Tuesday 22nd October 2013

Nothing from me again today, yesterday & today i have been busy away from the racing. Hopefully be back tomorrow & later on in the week with a few selections. Last week was a good one, yielding solid profit from good results, hopefully can continue in that form as soon as possible.

Saturday 19th October 2013 - Daily Tips

Big Saturday of Racing ahead, especially with the flat season closing with the Champions Day meeting at Ascot. Do have a couple of picks for the day which look worthwhile but, as with plenty of saturday racing there's a lot of tight/big field racing so be mindful of that & the day should be enjoyed for what it is, particularly at Ascot. If interested in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot have a look at the runner by runner preview below. Here are the few picks for today;

Ascot -

14:55 TALENT EW 4/1 = PLACED

ALSO

14:55 TALENT TO PLACE (finish in top 3) 5/6 (betfair) = WON

Ralph Becketts Filly comes into this as one of the most fancied & it is really hard to argue with that, Especially since she seemed to be back to herself when finishing an excellent second in the St Leger not too long ago. Her most impressive run to date came when she came from last to first & absolutely bolted up to win the Epsom Oaks & for me that run looks really good in relation to today's race. She proved in the St leger when the ground was pretty much soft that she can thrive on it so there should be no worries there & the manner in which she travelled so strongly into the St Leger is also another big positive. Dropping back to 12 furlongs today looks to be ideal & the conditions are not all that different from when she routed home in the Oaks. Don't get me wrong this is a top group 1 race & there are plenty of others in with a shout & deserve their place among the line up but for me if Talent is as well as she showed herself to be at Doncaster then she can reproduce the sort of display shown in the Oaks & holds big claims in this one. While some of you might think 4/1 is too short for an EW i think its worthwhile since if he finished in the places you are only losing a very small percentage of your stake so its pretty much money back. Also the 'to place' market on betfair looks worthwhile despite being just odds on, this filly looks to have a big shout for the place money.

Wolverhampton -

19:20 BOROUGH BOY WIN 2/1 = WON

5 Furlong maiden for this one & it looks a good opportunity for BOROUGH BOY to get seriously competitive once again. He finished runner up in a similar sort of race over C&D 7 days ago & in fact had a few of today's runners in behind him on that occasion. His profile doesn't exactly jump out at you but he is becoming more consistent finishing 2nd 4th & 3rd in his last 3 races with this one looking just about one of his easier tasks. He travelled into the race well last week & hit the front towards the end but just found one to good & was headed by a Mick Shannon runner towards the finish, in fairness there doesn't look to be anyone as good as his conqueror from last week in tonights line up. Joint top weight, but this was the case last week & in fact he is actually giving a couple of his rivals whom he beat home on that run a few less pounds so that should be viewed as a positive. Overall this looks a very good opportunity for BOROUGH BOY & if he is able to replicate last weeks run he can go close again & at 2/1 looks worth the punt.

SEE THE POST JUST BELOW FOR THE RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW OF THE GROUP 1 QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES AT ASCOT

Saturday 19th October 2013

With the flat season drawing to a close there is still one big meeting for fans & racegoers to enjoy, which is of course QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS DAY at Ascot. Many of the seasons show piece performers will go head to head over their selected distances as they bid to end the season with a bang. It should be a top day's racing & provides one last chance for this years top flat runners to take centre stage.

Ascot - 15:30 - QIPCO QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES (British Champions Mile) (Group 1)

In this race last year the unbeaten & unbelievable FRANKEL was ready to take to the racecourse for the last time in his short but breathtaking career & he certainly didn't disappoint, taking his second QEQII crown & entering retirement having never finished outside of 1st place from 14 starts. Whilst it was magnificent to see arguably the greatest flat horse ever finish his career unbeaten, it was an inevitability & the race didn't give punters any sort of puzzle to solve. This year's renewal certainly looks as though punters will be able to hunt for more value & i don't think anyone could say one horse is conclusively going to win, unlike last year. Plenty of the big trainers both from Britain & abroad enter some top contenders who together should make this a cracking race. See a run through of all the entrants below, where i have given a rating out of 10 for each.

BURWAZ - Ed Dunlop's charge comes into this as probably the least favoured runner & on all evidence that looks a justifiable statement. This 4 year old colt has only raced over the mile trip twice in his 17 runs to date & has failed to really set things alight in doing so. Most recent group outing came back in early august where he ran in the group 1 Prix Du Haras at Deauville & finished 11 of 13 runners & a massive 35 lengths off the leader. Has mainly ran over 6f & that is where his best form has come, however he has never won at group level & it seems on all evidence that it would take huge improvement for him to get involved here.
Overall Rating = 2

CASPAR NETSCHER - After an impressive debut win back in may 2011, this Simcock trained colt has performed consistently well at both listed & group 2 & 3 level, Accumulating 4 wins over trips of 5, 6 & 7 furlongs. However After 3 attempts at group 1 level he is yet to confirm that he belongs there. Has won on soft ground, but even so his form this year hasn't been anything special in relation to plenty in this field & is without a win since April 2012. Overall he looks vulnerable at this level & he would have to show marked improvement on even his best form to be in with a shout. Overall Rating = 3 

GORDON LORD BYRON - Tom Hogan's 5 year old has been in good form this season & has only finished out of the places twice in his 9 runs this term. He is twice a group 1 winner over 7f & 6f, the latter of which is probably his best piece of form to date, Coming in early september this year in Haydocks Betfred Sprint Cup where he shot clear of the impressive Slade Power to win by a margin of 3 lengths. He was far from disgraced last time out as he finished second behind odds on favourite Moonlight Cloud over in Longchamp (france) in the Prix De La Foret over 7 furlongs. That last run was on soft ground which he seemed to appreciate. Has won over the mile trip before, all be it at group 3 level & all in all if turning up with his top game here today then he shouldn't be altogether dismissed & could hold each way claims at what is likely to be a bigger price than others.
Overall Rating = 6

GREGORIAN - Ryan Moore's mount, the John Gosden trained GREGORIAN has been in pretty good form this term but is another who has questions to answer in terms of whether he can be a top player in group 1 company. Has performed well in group 2 & 3's this season, winning twice & placing a further 3 times. He was a cosy winner of the group 3 Doimed Stakes at Epsom back in the summer & followed that up with a very respectable 3rd in the group 1 Queen Anne Stakes over today's C&D, that solid effort in the Queen Anne came on good ground & he hasn't been able to replicate that sort of form since on softer ground. Last time out over in Longchamp he finished a moderate 8th of 17 runners in a group 2 over the mile trip. Overall i'm not too sure he is entirely suited by the softer ground & on the evidence available i think he could come up short against a few in this field. Overall Rating = 4

MAXIOS - The French don't tend to send over any old runner for these events & MAXIOS has been in the best form of his career so far this season. Twice a winner at group 1 level, last time out over today's trip of a mile in the Prix Moulin & over an extended 9 furlongs back in may in the Prix De Ispahan. Both of those wins have come on soft ground so he should be right at home under today's conditions. However he may have been flattered by that last win, where he certainly got the run of the race & although he finished 5 lengths ahead of another one of today's well fancied sorts in Olympic Glory, there is no certainty that he will repeat that form & on the whole this race looks a tougher proposition. All things considered it should not be forgot that he is a dual group winner on soft ground, which entitles him to earn plenty of respect & shouldn't be easily disregarded. Overall Rating = 7

SOFT FALLING RAIN - Mike De Kock's South African contender has proven in his short career so far that he is very good back in his homeland & has proved that he can cut it so far in his few outings in Britain. Winning 8 out of his 9 starts to date just backs up any notion of him being a class act. Today is to be his first outing against group 1 opposition in britain but he did brush aside grade 1 opposition in the 2 year olds division 4 times back in South Africa. Last time out at Newmarket stormed home under Paul Hanagan to win a group 2 event over a mile, beaten the well thought of Hannon Trained Montiridge. The fact that he has not raced on ground softer than good is certainly of some concern & anyone siding with him in the market will have to go on the assumption that he can be as effective on it. Overall he has done little wrong & the manner in which he won last time out suggests he could easily cut it at group 1 level, if taking to the ground can enter the reckoning here. Overall Rating = 8

DAWN APPROACH - This season's 2000 Guineas hero. Jim Bolger's 3 year old colt could not have started his career any more impressively, winning his first 7 races. As mentioned above his most notable form was when he stormed home to win Newmarket's 2000 Guineas by 5 lengths. Hasn't been in the same form in his 4 runs since despite narrowly winning the St James Palace stakes over C&d at the Royal meeting, but probably has his excuses for his poor runs. Has shown in his career that he can win on easing ground so there should be no worries there. Comes into this one after a decent 69 days break & has shown in the past he can go well when fresh. This Quadruple group 1 winner undoubtedly has class, if in the right mood here then he has to go forward as the main player & claiming his 5th group 1 success in what looks like his last race certainly isn't out of the question. Overall Rating = 9

ELUSIVE KATE - John Gosden's front running filly has been a very consistent servant at group 1 level & has had her fair share of success, winning 4 times at this level. She loves to dictate from the front & has shown that she can be a hard one to pass if allowed a soft lead, particularly when winning the Falmouth stakes at Newmarket & Rothschild in Deauville. However she has generally come up a little short when racing against the colts & she faces plenty of those here today. The fact she has been out of form the last twice also makes it hard to make a serious case for her. All in all she is likely to give her running from the front but it would be a bit of surprise if she were to hold off all challengers & take this, maybe one for each way claims at a bigger price. Overall Rating = 6

KINGSBARNS - The O'brien trained/ridden entrant here comes into this for only his 4th career run. Showed real promise when winning a Navan 8 furlong maiden on his debut by a comfortable 7 lengths, followed that up with another impressive win in the group 1 Racing Post Trophy. Following an impressive first two wins, he wasn't seen again until september this year after 315 days off & was nowhere when finishing stone last of 6 runners in the group 1 irish champion stakes over 10f, finishing a huge 58 lengths off the leader. 42 days off since then so assuming he is well after that & the drop back to a mile on soft ground should help then he can give a better account of himself but in all honesty it would be a bit of surprise if he was able to win this despite that 2 year old promise when you consider that last run combined with his inexperience. Overall Rating = 4

LEITIR MOR - The second runner from the powerful Jim Bolger stable & in fairness he looks the stable second string here. Yet to prove himself as a serious group 1 contender & more importantly yet to prove that he can win over a mile at the top level. Not too say he isn't a smart sort on his day & has won a couple of group 3 events over shorter trips but he is usually deployed to set the race up right for stable mate Dawn Approach & that looks to be his role here again. Be surprising if he was to get really involved at the business end in this one & doesn't look to be one for any seriousness in terms of betting. Overall Rating = 3

OLYMPIC GLORY - Where Group 1's are concerned Richard Hannon is generally not too far away & he looks to possess a big player here in OLYMPIC GLORY. Has won on 5 f his 9 starts to date including the group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere over 7 furlongs. Definitely not disgraced on his last two outings when finishing runner up on both occasions, both group 1 encounters over in France. He did finish 5 lengths behind today's rivals Maxios last time out, however Maxios certainly got things to fall his way that day & there is nothing to suggest that Hannon's charge couldn't reverse that form now back on home soil but, you can't completely take that victory away from Maxios & OLYMPIC GLORY does have 5 lengths to find. Either way Hannon's runner has proved himself on both the ground & at this level & with champion jockey Richard Hughes doing the steering anything is possible. All in all looks one of the more likelier types here & should not be disregarded easily. Overall Rating = 8

TOP NOTCH TONTO - Brian Ellison's gelding has been in terrific form this season particularly the latter part, winning 3 times in his last 4 outings. Although he is in great nick at present he has been racing largely in handicaps which is somewhat off the level that is required today. Only had the one outing at group level, when he won the group 2 superior mile at Haydock & followed that success up with another decent victory last time out in listed class over 7 furlongs at Redcar. Despite being in good form recently this is bar far his toughest task yet & he would need to show considerable improvement if he's going to step up & get seriously get involved here today. Could perhaps have a slight outside shot at the place money at a bigger price. Overall Rating = 4

CHIRPY'S VERDICT -

As with the majority of Group 1 races, this should be a really good race for the spectator & there is plenty of high quality talent on show. In my eyes, Both MAXIOS & OLYMPIC GLORY can go well after all they both have the credentials & the form under these conditions, it will be interesting to see how they go against each other, could they fill the first two places again? Ultimately they could certainly be decent EW bets if the price allows. For Ireland GORDON LORD BYRON is likely to be a nice price & if at his best has decent EW claims. SOFT FALLING RAIN is another who if taking to the soft ground could be a big player & would hold solid each way claims at what is likely to be nice price for a horse with a record such as his. Lastly the money is likely to come For DAWN APPROACH & rightly so, he has been a real group 1 force at his best & will be a worthy favourite, if bringing his top game today he could be hard to beat, Could we see another Colt make a winning end to a top group 1 career?.

Friday 18th October 2013

No selections today, partly because of a busy day elsewhere & partly down to the majority of today's action looking best watched in my opinion. Been involved with selections on a few days this week & its been a very profitable week at that with 3 out of the 4 selections winning @ 2/1, 6/4 & 11/8, while these aren't massive prices they have been solid winning selections nonetheless & without wasting money elsewhere have made very healthy profit for the week. Whilst on this note, i have been tipping a fair few short priced runners recently (majority of which winning) this is not because i am actively looking for favourites its just so happens that at the moment these particular ones have looked on all evidence the most viable bets about & the results would back that up. Regular readers of the Blog will know that i have tipped plenty of non favourites/bigger priced EW's that have won/placed & in all honesty the price of a bet is irrelevant as long as it represents value, for me 'value' doesn't mean a bigger price, it is just something that refers to the relationship between a horse's price & its chances of winning, so even a very short priced favourite can be of value if on all evidence it looks easily the most solid option. I will always continue to look for bigger priced bets & will post them when they look viable but i am not going to waste money nor waste readers time with bigger priced EW's just for the sake of it unless they look to have a real chance of at least hitting the place money. So all in all it's been another good week of solid profit & i have been pleased to see plenty of you getting in touch over twitter to say you've been involved.

I will be adding another detailed race write up to the blog later on tonight for the the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot tomorrow so be sure to check that out if you're interested in the race, it should be a cracking end to the season for this year's leading milers. the preview will contain thoughts for the race & a detailed look at each horse, followed by a rating out of 10 as usual, these have gone down well in the past so hopefully people find this one as interesting/helpful as the others.

Wednesday 16th October 2013 - Daily Tips

Nothing yesterday but Monday was a good start to the week & a nicely profitable day with both the single & the double landing. Having gone through today have decided on a couple of bets that look good value, both on the afternoon card at Lingfield.

Lingfield -

14:30 - BLACK SCHNAPPS 11/8 (6/4 SP) WIN = WON

William Muir's 2 year old Colt comes into this one for just his second racecourse outing after a very promising debut 2nd at Salisbury a fortnight ago. Going over the same trip of a mile here today & drops from a class 4 maiden into a class 6 which on paper makes this race look easier than the one contested last time out. In that debut run he stayed on well in the final furlong from towards the rear to claim a clear second & that performance looks as though it definitely sets the standard for this race. Racing on turf that day (heavy going) so the fact that today's race is on the polytrack brings about some unknown but i don't think that should pose too much of a problem & isn't anywhere near as much of a concern as if say he was transferring from heavy turf to good to firm turf. It is also quite typical for William Muir trained horses to come on from their first run & considering the promise he showed on that debut could mean any movement in the right direction here today should see him lay down a big challenge. From the others the best could come from the Ed Dunlop newcomer Lifejacket & although his pedigree suggests he could go well first time out i am hoping that BLACK SCHNAPPS debut experience gives him the upper hand. Lawman's Lady is another who shaped with some promise on debut but took a step backwards at wolves last time so while she could be a challenger she would have to improve markedly for this step up in trip if BLACK SCHNAPPS is going the right way on his second run. On all evidence BLACK SCHNAPPS brings into the race the best credentials & in my eyes, he wouldn't need to improve much to be seriously involved here. Although short enough in the market he looks worth the bet.

17:10 - JUVENAL 8/1 EW = LOST (6/12)

Class 5 handicap over a mile for this one & while a few of these could have a worthwhile case made for them, one that catches the eye as perhaps slightly over priced is Richard Hannon's runner JUVENAL who when contesting handicaps has largely been running in class 3 & 4 company. Around this sort of time last year this gelding was going well & as a result won a pair of bigger field handicaps over this distance on the turf (a class 4 & class 5) off higher marks & carrying more weight. Didn't get going really this season in a few runs in handicap company but has returned back to a bit of form recently when placing in a couple of claiming races & finishing in behind an 85 rated winner last time. Those two placed efforts came over 10f & he just didn't quite stay the trip, so the drop back to a mile today is sure to be appreciated. Is looking off a decent handicap mark at the moment though & is in fact due to go up 4lb in the ratings after this race. Although towards the top of the weights here he is ridden by handy 3lb claimer William Twiston-Davies. That recent place form in claimers finishing in behind rivals who have also done well at this level could possibly transfer well & Ultimately JUVENAL could go well back in handicap company today dropping back to what looks like his optimum distance of 8 furlongs. All in all at a nice price of 8/1 he has the profile to go well here today & could hit the place money given the right run so looks worth a small punt EW.

Monday 14th October 2013 - Daily Tips

The weekend was a quiet one from me, but back today with a couple of selections that look worth the bet.

Salisbury -

14:50 DUTCH ROMANCE WIN 11/10 (13/8 SP) = WON

The Charlie Hills Trained 2 YO filly made an encouraging debut last time out, running on strongly to take 4th after coming from back in the field, she should be more the wiser for the run & this race on the face of things looks a good opportunity to do better on just her second start. That debut came over today's trip over 7f at Newbury on soft ground & in a 12 strong field she hinted at some ability when able to quicken & run on strongly in the final furlong to get a close 4th. That run came in a class 4 maiden & drops into a class 5 today which on paper looks an easier task. The horse who DUTCH ROMANCE finished a neck behind on debut has gone out & won since in a class 5 maiden & while that is not concrete evidence that DUTCH ROMANCE should be winning it is a good indication & the manner of her staying on finish in that debut suggest that with perhaps only slight improvement she should be up to winning a race of this sort. The booking of Ryan Moore is also a positive addition since when it comes to top jockeys making the difference on rides they don't get much better than Moore on his day. The main dangers look to be Joohaina & Aertex The former also ran with credit on debut when finishing fourth at kempton in this class but has been off for over 100 days since & will make her first appearance to turf today, Aertex although only 8/15 on debut in this class at goodwood she is another who looks as if the run should bring her on & anything entered by the Hannon/Hughes combo should command respect. Alumina is a debutant for Andrew Balding & while she has a decent pedigree & comes from a good yard who can ready one, i think she would have to run a really big race on debut to take this. All in all Dutch Romance brings into the race the strongest form & with conditions that look favourable & Moore on board i think she wouldn't require too much more than she showed on debut to get really involved here. Looks worth the bet despite the short price.

ALSO, DUTCH ROMANCE & DEVILS BRIDE (13:15 Limerick) IN A DOUBLE @ 2/1 = WON

Saturday 12th September 2013

Nothing from me today. As regular readers will know i don't get involved on saturday's too often, while the action is generally good there are lots of tight races/big fields & for me mostly the racing should be enjoyed for what it is & not from a serious punting point of view. Been another steady profit start to the month & hopefully it can continue soon enough. Hopefully be back plenty during the week with some value selections.

Friday 11th October 2013 - Daily Tips

Yesterday's double resulted in disappointment as SILVER COMMANDER Jumped the best but his fitness after a longish break let him down & found one too strong in the final few furlongs, was a shame considering the second horse in the double bolted home unchallenged but thats the way it goes sometimes. That was the first bet to lose so far this month so can't complain too much. Onto today & in my eyes the majority of he action looks best watched. Their were a few runners over the jumps that i liked but for one reason or another they didn't look solid enough to merit the bet. Have gone for just the one little EW punt this evening at Wolverhampton who looks good value at a nice price.

Wolverhampton -

17:40 SPACE WALKER EW 11/2 = LOST (4th of 9)

7 furlong maiden here to start the card & there are a few runners who will be well supported but for me the one who catches the eye most is the H J L DUNLOP trained SPACE WALKER, who seems to be being overlooked in the early betting & comes into this after an encouraging debut effort over the distance last time out at Kempton. As i say last time out was his debut where he was able to overcome a wide draw to lead, running a good race from the front to finish a very respectable 3rd of 13 runners, he seemed to know his job that day & if coming on for that run then he could go even better here tonight from a kinder draw. The horse who finished half a length in front of him that day has gone & won next time out which is only a positive thing when considering SPACE WALKER'S chances here. Admittedly there are a few in the race who seem to have the potential to do well but some of those are yet to prove themselves on the AW which is something SPACE WALKER did well on debut. All things considered if he can reproduce that promise shown on his first run then he may not require too much improvement to get involved here & on a day where no real serious punts look viable he is worth the EW money. 

Thursday 10th October 2013 - Daily Tips

Tuesday was a decent day with the only selection being a winning one & although a quiet month so far, it's been a profitable one with all 4 selections to this point winning. Couple of picks today at Exeter that i have decided to have as a double.

Exeter -

15:50 SILVER COMMANDER = LOST (2nd) & 16:20 RAYVIN BLACK = WON - BOTH TO WIN DOUBLE 5/2 = LOST 

Starting with the first race, 3 mile chase contested by 4 runners & SILVER COMMANDER brings into it a pretty solid profile having finished runner up on both of his chase starts to date & this looks on the face of it his easiest test so far over fences. His best piece of form was when chasing home a subsequent hat trick winner on his debut over today's of trip 24 furlongs at Ludlow in a class 3 (class 4 today), Jumping pretty well & all round running with plenty of respect, finishing in front of 3 rivals rated in the 130's in doing so. Last time out he ran well again over a trip of 22 furlongs, only beaten by a couple of lengths to a high 120's rated Paul Nicholls horse & had that race been over today's 3 mile he might have won. Comes back into this from a 132 day break so providing he is fit enough he looks definitely to be the solid form option. Yet to race on today's good to firm but that debut run came on good ground & it was his better performance of the 2 so there shouldn't be any real problems on that front. Will also have to carry top weight  Dawn Commander & Virginia Ash look the main threats here but are both yet to show any real promise over fences, with the former running well over hurdles but on 3 chase appearances last season was disappointing & certainly has questions to answer over his jumping, Similarly Virginia Ash didn't live up to favouritism on her chasing debut & unseated the rider at the third & although he should do better than that i think he could come up short against SILVER COMMANDER who overall brings a nice profile forward & this looks a good opportunity for him, if  ready after his break & repeating his decent jumping again here then he looks the best option.

Onto the second & that comes in the next race, a 2 mile 1 furlong novice hurdle where similarly to the first selection RAYVIN BLACK brings forward a very steady profile, having had 4 starts over hurdles so far posting figures of 2212. Last time out he finished a decent 2nd of 9 runners in this class over today's trip at Market Rasen & before that he was a tidy winner of a 14 runner maiden. Today looks to be perhaps his easiest task  yet in novice company with not many others in this line up showing too much promise in the hurdling sphere. Will have to shoulder top weight here but he looks as though he can handle it as he carried close to top weight last time out in what looked a better race & he ran well. The main danger looks to be Rayes Mavos & it would be hard to get really excited about his prospects since he has been well beaten on both his hurdles appearances to date all be it on softer ground but i think he would have to show real improvement to get seriously involved. The newcomer Frozen Over is an interesting runner & is likely to have support since he was a useful stayer on the flat but again i think he would have to put down a big debut run over hurdles to win this. All in all this looks a good opening for RAYVIN BLACK & like the above if ready to go fresh after a break & repeating his steady hurdle form so far then he has a very good chance. While both picks are short in the market at odds on, together as a double at 5/2 looks decent value & is worth the bet in my eyes.

Tuesday 7th October 2013 - Daily Tips

Was good to see that the Arc preview went down well with plenty of views & received some positive feedback. Pleased that 2 of my top 3 selected finished first/second & what a performance it was from the unbeaten filly TREVE, pure class. In terms of selections its been a quiet start to the month, but the only 3 selections so far have all been winners, so can't complain. Onto today & a selection that look worth the bet. Potentially could add some picks for the evening card if anything looks viable.

Leicester -

15:10 - BANREENAHREENKAH WIN 11/8 = WON

This looks like a decent opening for the D J Cloakely filly to lay down a real challenge, she has shown some decent form in races that match today's conditions & certainly looks one of the most likely types here. Her best piece of form came in her second to last run where she finished a respectable 2nd in a class 5 handicap over today's trip of 10f at , racing on similar good to firm ground as forecast for today. On her only other run at today's trip she also finished 2nd chasing a long odds on favourite (all be it 5 lengths behind) she was well clear of the remainder. These 2 pieces look pretty decent in relation to today's task considering she drops into a class 6 seller & is facing on paper some easier opposition, a repeat of the form shown over her two previous trips at this distance could see her right up there. Last time out she was disappointing but that came on heavy ground that she wasn't able to handle, back on preferable ground today hopefully she can bounce back. On evidence Calon Lad looks the the main threat but he doesn't show as good/consistent form as BANREENAHREENKAH & he gives the selection 5lb in weight. Looks well in towards the foot of the weights & all in all on the hard facts & figures BANREENAHREENKAH has what it takes to go really well in this one & she looks worth the punt.

Sunday 6th October 2013

Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (Group 1)

With the flat season drawing to a close in the UK, the majority involved turn their attentions to Longchamp where Europe's premier middle distance thoroughbreds take to the biggest stage & go head to head in the continent's richest turf race, namely 'The Arc'. The french name of the race translates as "It's not a race, it's a monument" & i'm sure that connections would agree with this as they come here hoping that their entries can go on from strong performances in their own countries & take the ultimate prize.

The big group 1 races are often tight & they don't come any bigger than this one, so every runner in this field deserves their place, therefore nothing should be completely disregarded. Great Britains charge is 4 strong & those four all bring forward very strong credentials. Starting with the Ed Dunlop trained JOSHUA TREE, easily the least fancied of the British trained 4 & was below his best recently. Best form came over in America when winning a group 1 at Woodbine over today's trip but hasn't been able to reach those heights since. AL KAZEEM lines up for the Charlton stable here & He has been one of the stand out group 1 horses this season back in the UK winning 3 times & jockey James Doyle has said that today's trip of a mile & a half should suit very well & this may well be what he needs to get really competitive again after going slightly off the boil recently, does have the widest draw of the lot to contend with though so looks up against it. Aiden O'Brien sends over 2 runners, firstly St Ledger hero LEADING LIGHT, who looked a real top stayer when winning the final classic of the season from the front & while he isn't without a chance in this, he may well set the pace & therefore set the race up for a strong finish which could play right into the hands of the second of O'briens runners, Epsom Derby winner RULER OF THE WORLD who looked back to the level that is expected of him when last seen finishing a close second in the Prix Niel. He is sure appreciate the easing ground & a big run from him under one of the strongest finishers around in Ryan Moore could see him right up there.

On other fronts, for France Andre Fabre saddles no less than 5 runners most notably INTELLO, who comes into this as another who should relish the easing ground & has shown that he can compete at group 1 level when winning the Prix Du Jockey Club over 10f back in June, Staying on well so today's trip should suit & he's not without a chance. Fabre also enters FLINTSHIRE & OCOVANGO who finished 1st & 3rd respectively in the group 1 Grand Prix De Paris over C&D back in June, The latter of which also finished only 3 parts of a length behind the aforementioned Prix Niel runner up so both of these command a level of respect. Japan's KIZUNA beat Ruler Of The World by a short head in the Prix Niel last time out & he stayed on well i think he was a tad fortunate & can see Ruler Of The World is getting a clear run reversing that form. KIZUNA won that race none the less & ran well so is entitled to his place here, could be more to come but might find one or two too strong. France's Stand in this race is strengthened further by trainer Head-Maarek's unbeaten filly TREVE, who's winning performance over C&D last time out in the group 1 Prix Vermielle screamed class, She showed on that day that soft ground is of no trouble to her as she brushed aside the field on the rail inside the final furlong & looked as though she had more in the tank. Frankie Dettori's injury this week means he can't take the mount but Frankie loss is Thierry Jarnets gain. This filly looks set to put down a strong challenge to maintain her unbeaten record & looks a key player despite a wide draw. The early market leader ORFEVRE is another challenger of Japan, who was the runner up in this race last year when overcoming the widest draw to sweep round the field & look to have the race all but won before not seeing it out properly & being done on the line. Has had only the one run since in group 2 over C&D a few weeks ago & ran out an easy winner. Does have these little strange tendencies but if he brings his top game tomorrow there is every chance he will be hard to beat under top jockey Christophe Soumillon & has a much better draw this year.

Chirpy's Verdict -

There can be no denying that there are plenty who have the credentials to go well here & it would be ill advised to conclusively rule out any of those towards the front of the market especially. It is an interesting fact that in the last 19 runnings of this race 15 have been won by 3 year olds. INTELLO, FLINTSHIRE, AL KAZEEM, OCOVANGO & KIZUNA all make some each way appeal at likely bigger odds but in my opinion on the hard evidence the winner is likely to come from the following 3. RULER OF THE WORLD proved he was over his Curragh disappointment last time out & could get the strong finish he should thrive on providing stable mate Leading Light sets the pace as anticipated. The Filly TREVE looked a real class act last time out & if getting the correct position to execute that potent turn of foot she has a very good chance. ORFEVRE has to be on anyone's short list despite his tendencies & the fact he looked to have the race sewn up last year after going the long way round from stall 18 means a repeat of that sort of form would see him right up there.

Hopefully readers find this review both helpful/useful & as always if anyone has any questions or feedback then do contact me via twitter or on the email which can be found on the home page. Good luck with whoever you choose.

Friday 4th September 2013

Its been a quiet week this week, partly because there has been some poor racing & partly down to lack of time to get on here because of other commitments, having said tuesday was the only day involved & it turned out to be a very good day with both the 2 singles & the double landing to generate very solid profit. For the week on the whole tuesday has made it a very profitable one which is pleasing. As many of the regular readers will know i am not one for going crazy with selections every day & there will often be days where nothing is posted, I feel you have to be both patient & cautious in this game if you are going to have any sort of success & you shouldn't feel like you need to have a bet everyday because quite simply on many days there won't be anything viable. Tuesdays success made for a very nice start to the month, will be doing the research for the weekend & anything feasible will be posted on the blog as usual.

Have a good weekend & BE LUCKY

Tuesday 1st October 2013 - Daily Tips

Back today after a few days off & have a couple of selections that look worthwhile, short prices for both but both look to have found good opportunities in my eyes. Good Luck to anyone getting involved.

Sedgefield -

14:50 BRIGHT ABBEY WIN 7/4 = WON 

Dianne Sayer's gelding has been in consistent form this season over hurdles & has managed to place on 5 of her last 6 outings over timber all following a decent win at Stratford back in April, So its there to see that he gives his running more often than not. In my eyes this race today looks a good opportunity for him to lay down a really strong challenge. The majority of those placed efforts came in stronger races than today in the form of class 3 handicaps (class 4 novice company today) His best piece of form in relation to this race was when finishing runner up by only 1/2 a length over 21 furlongs (today 22f) at Perth in a class 3 handicap back in mid August, he stayed on well that day near the finish which suggests that the extra furlong faced today should suit, he had higher rated horses than faced today in behind him that day & on others runs also.Today's rider Lucy Alexander had her only previous ride on the gelding in that Perth race & considering that was one of his better performances her booking should be seen as a positive addition. Was tried on the flat last time out at Ayr 11 days ago, Couldn't get involved there & ran poorly but hopefully now back in this field he can continue building on his already solid profile. In this one the obvious dangers look to be Koultas King & Larteta, with the former in good form seeking a hatrick (previous 2 wins in weaker races) & Larteta looks an improver but i think both could struggle to match BRIGHT ABBEY if he's bringing his best form forward for this one today. All in All a repeat of some of his decent 2nds especially that Perth run could see him go very well. Admittedly i do get these wrong sometimes but for this one at a price of 7/4 he looks worth the bet.

Kempton -

18:20 TIDES REACH WIN EVENS = WON

A 7f Maiden for this one & the Roger Charlton trained TIDES REACH looks solid on his form so far, he has caught the eye of both of his first rides, particularly his debut when he was a staying on second over 6f in a better race than this. He was beaten at odds on last time & perhaps didn't run quite as well as expected but finished 3rd in behind a pair of Richard Hannon trained horses who both looked decent prospects so he wasn't completely disgraced & he doesn't look to be facing anything of that calibre in this weaker event. Both his maidens to date came in class 5 & the drop down to class 6 tonight im sure looks quite appealing to favourite backers. The real important thing tonight i think is the step up to 7f as which is something he looks sure to appreciate given the fact he stayed on well in both of his 6f starts. There are a few with decent form that could improve for this one tonight but on the whole they look as though they could fall short of TIDES REACH & he brings into the race quite easily the best form. In summary a repeat of his efforts to date over this extended trip could well suffice here & he looks worth a punt on the nose all be it at a short price.

BOTH SELECTIONS IN A DOUBLE PAYS AROUND 4/1 = WON