With the flat season drawing to a close there is still one big meeting for fans & racegoers to enjoy, which is of course QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS DAY at Ascot. Many of the seasons show piece performers will go head to head over their selected distances as they bid to end the season with a bang. It should be a top day's racing & provides one last chance for this years top flat runners to take centre stage.
Ascot - 15:30 - QIPCO QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES (British Champions Mile) (Group 1)
In this race last year the unbeaten & unbelievable FRANKEL was ready to take to the racecourse for the last time in his short but breathtaking career & he certainly didn't disappoint, taking his second QEQII crown & entering retirement having never finished outside of 1st place from 14 starts. Whilst it was magnificent to see arguably the greatest flat horse ever finish his career unbeaten, it was an inevitability & the race didn't give punters any sort of puzzle to solve. This year's renewal certainly looks as though punters will be able to hunt for more value & i don't think anyone could say one horse is conclusively going to win, unlike last year. Plenty of the big trainers both from Britain & abroad enter some top contenders who together should make this a cracking race. See a run through of all the entrants below, where i have given a rating out of 10 for each.
BURWAZ - Ed Dunlop's charge comes into this as probably the least favoured runner & on all evidence that looks a justifiable statement. This 4 year old colt has only raced over the mile trip twice in his 17 runs to date & has failed to really set things alight in doing so. Most recent group outing came back in early august where he ran in the group 1 Prix Du Haras at Deauville & finished 11 of 13 runners & a massive 35 lengths off the leader. Has mainly ran over 6f & that is where his best form has come, however he has never won at group level & it seems on all evidence that it would take huge improvement for him to get involved here.
Overall Rating = 2
CASPAR NETSCHER - After an impressive debut win back in may 2011, this Simcock trained colt has performed consistently well at both listed & group 2 & 3 level, Accumulating 4 wins over trips of 5, 6 & 7 furlongs. However After 3 attempts at group 1 level he is yet to confirm that he belongs there. Has won on soft ground, but even so his form this year hasn't been anything special in relation to plenty in this field & is without a win since April 2012. Overall he looks vulnerable at this level & he would have to show marked improvement on even his best form to be in with a shout. Overall Rating = 3
GORDON LORD BYRON - Tom Hogan's 5 year old has been in good form this season & has only finished out of the places twice in his 9 runs this term. He is twice a group 1 winner over 7f & 6f, the latter of which is probably his best piece of form to date, Coming in early september this year in Haydocks Betfred Sprint Cup where he shot clear of the impressive Slade Power to win by a margin of 3 lengths. He was far from disgraced last time out as he finished second behind odds on favourite Moonlight Cloud over in Longchamp (france) in the Prix De La Foret over 7 furlongs. That last run was on soft ground which he seemed to appreciate. Has won over the mile trip before, all be it at group 3 level & all in all if turning up with his top game here today then he shouldn't be altogether dismissed & could hold each way claims at what is likely to be a bigger price than others.
Overall Rating = 6
GREGORIAN - Ryan Moore's mount, the John Gosden trained GREGORIAN has been in pretty good form this term but is another who has questions to answer in terms of whether he can be a top player in group 1 company. Has performed well in group 2 & 3's this season, winning twice & placing a further 3 times. He was a cosy winner of the group 3 Doimed Stakes at Epsom back in the summer & followed that up with a very respectable 3rd in the group 1 Queen Anne Stakes over today's C&D, that solid effort in the Queen Anne came on good ground & he hasn't been able to replicate that sort of form since on softer ground. Last time out over in Longchamp he finished a moderate 8th of 17 runners in a group 2 over the mile trip. Overall i'm not too sure he is entirely suited by the softer ground & on the evidence available i think he could come up short against a few in this field. Overall Rating = 4
MAXIOS - The French don't tend to send over any old runner for these events & MAXIOS has been in the best form of his career so far this season. Twice a winner at group 1 level, last time out over today's trip of a mile in the Prix Moulin & over an extended 9 furlongs back in may in the Prix De Ispahan. Both of those wins have come on soft ground so he should be right at home under today's conditions. However he may have been flattered by that last win, where he certainly got the run of the race & although he finished 5 lengths ahead of another one of today's well fancied sorts in Olympic Glory, there is no certainty that he will repeat that form & on the whole this race looks a tougher proposition. All things considered it should not be forgot that he is a dual group winner on soft ground, which entitles him to earn plenty of respect & shouldn't be easily disregarded. Overall Rating = 7
SOFT FALLING RAIN - Mike De Kock's South African contender has proven in his short career so far that he is very good back in his homeland & has proved that he can cut it so far in his few outings in Britain. Winning 8 out of his 9 starts to date just backs up any notion of him being a class act. Today is to be his first outing against group 1 opposition in britain but he did brush aside grade 1 opposition in the 2 year olds division 4 times back in South Africa. Last time out at Newmarket stormed home under Paul Hanagan to win a group 2 event over a mile, beaten the well thought of Hannon Trained Montiridge. The fact that he has not raced on ground softer than good is certainly of some concern & anyone siding with him in the market will have to go on the assumption that he can be as effective on it. Overall he has done little wrong & the manner in which he won last time out suggests he could easily cut it at group 1 level, if taking to the ground can enter the reckoning here. Overall Rating = 8
DAWN APPROACH - This season's 2000 Guineas hero. Jim Bolger's 3 year old colt could not have started his career any more impressively, winning his first 7 races. As mentioned above his most notable form was when he stormed home to win Newmarket's 2000 Guineas by 5 lengths. Hasn't been in the same form in his 4 runs since despite narrowly winning the St James Palace stakes over C&d at the Royal meeting, but probably has his excuses for his poor runs. Has shown in his career that he can win on easing ground so there should be no worries there. Comes into this one after a decent 69 days break & has shown in the past he can go well when fresh. This Quadruple group 1 winner undoubtedly has class, if in the right mood here then he has to go forward as the main player & claiming his 5th group 1 success in what looks like his last race certainly isn't out of the question. Overall Rating = 9
ELUSIVE KATE - John Gosden's front running filly has been a very consistent servant at group 1 level & has had her fair share of success, winning 4 times at this level. She loves to dictate from the front & has shown that she can be a hard one to pass if allowed a soft lead, particularly when winning the Falmouth stakes at Newmarket & Rothschild in Deauville. However she has generally come up a little short when racing against the colts & she faces plenty of those here today. The fact she has been out of form the last twice also makes it hard to make a serious case for her. All in all she is likely to give her running from the front but it would be a bit of surprise if she were to hold off all challengers & take this, maybe one for each way claims at a bigger price. Overall Rating = 6
KINGSBARNS - The O'brien trained/ridden entrant here comes into this for only his 4th career run. Showed real promise when winning a Navan 8 furlong maiden on his debut by a comfortable 7 lengths, followed that up with another impressive win in the group 1 Racing Post Trophy. Following an impressive first two wins, he wasn't seen again until september this year after 315 days off & was nowhere when finishing stone last of 6 runners in the group 1 irish champion stakes over 10f, finishing a huge 58 lengths off the leader. 42 days off since then so assuming he is well after that & the drop back to a mile on soft ground should help then he can give a better account of himself but in all honesty it would be a bit of surprise if he was able to win this despite that 2 year old promise when you consider that last run combined with his inexperience. Overall Rating = 4
LEITIR MOR - The second runner from the powerful Jim Bolger stable & in fairness he looks the stable second string here. Yet to prove himself as a serious group 1 contender & more importantly yet to prove that he can win over a mile at the top level. Not too say he isn't a smart sort on his day & has won a couple of group 3 events over shorter trips but he is usually deployed to set the race up right for stable mate Dawn Approach & that looks to be his role here again. Be surprising if he was to get really involved at the business end in this one & doesn't look to be one for any seriousness in terms of betting. Overall Rating = 3
OLYMPIC GLORY - Where Group 1's are concerned Richard Hannon is generally not too far away & he looks to possess a big player here in OLYMPIC GLORY. Has won on 5 f his 9 starts to date including the group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere over 7 furlongs. Definitely not disgraced on his last two outings when finishing runner up on both occasions, both group 1 encounters over in France. He did finish 5 lengths behind today's rivals Maxios last time out, however Maxios certainly got things to fall his way that day & there is nothing to suggest that Hannon's charge couldn't reverse that form now back on home soil but, you can't completely take that victory away from Maxios & OLYMPIC GLORY does have 5 lengths to find. Either way Hannon's runner has proved himself on both the ground & at this level & with champion jockey Richard Hughes doing the steering anything is possible. All in all looks one of the more likelier types here & should not be disregarded easily. Overall Rating = 8
TOP NOTCH TONTO - Brian Ellison's gelding has been in terrific form this season particularly the latter part, winning 3 times in his last 4 outings. Although he is in great nick at present he has been racing largely in handicaps which is somewhat off the level that is required today. Only had the one outing at group level, when he won the group 2 superior mile at Haydock & followed that success up with another decent victory last time out in listed class over 7 furlongs at Redcar. Despite being in good form recently this is bar far his toughest task yet & he would need to show considerable improvement if he's going to step up & get seriously get involved here today. Could perhaps have a slight outside shot at the place money at a bigger price. Overall Rating = 4
CHIRPY'S VERDICT -
As with the majority of Group 1 races, this should be a really good race for the spectator & there is plenty of high quality talent on show. In my eyes, Both MAXIOS & OLYMPIC GLORY can go well after all they both have the credentials & the form under these conditions, it will be interesting to see how they go against each other, could they fill the first two places again? Ultimately they could certainly be decent EW bets if the price allows. For Ireland GORDON LORD BYRON is likely to be a nice price & if at his best has decent EW claims. SOFT FALLING RAIN is another who if taking to the soft ground could be a big player & would hold solid each way claims at what is likely to be nice price for a horse with a record such as his. Lastly the money is likely to come For DAWN APPROACH & rightly so, he has been a real group 1 force at his best & will be a worthy favourite, if bringing his top game today he could be hard to beat, Could we see another Colt make a winning end to a top group 1 career?.
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