The last few days have been very poor & have offered very little to get stuck into from both a sensible & value point of view & unfortunately today seems much of the same. Days like these (which seem to be every day at the moment) are a disappointment to say the least, because i love nothing more than being able to get stuck in & pick some confident selections, but that's just not the way things are panning out this week. On a different note i am a big fan of the jumps & with the return of a national hunt card today at southwell means that i have managed to select two bets that look of decent EW value & seem worth a punt, small stakes though.
Southwell -
15:10 - DUCHESS THEATRE 5/1 EW = LOST (4/9)
Since going over hurdles has run two decent races, firstly making her debut over timber back at beginning of august finishing 3rd of 6, 7 lengths behind the very useful multiple winner As i am. Improved on that first effort when finishing 2nd of 12 last time out over today's trip of 16. Both of these runs have come in class 4 novice hurdles, drops into a class 5 maiden today which on the face of it should be an easier task, ridden by regular conditional Jack Greenall so should be no problems on the jockey front. Ultimately if she is able to bring the form she has shown so far over timber forward today then this mare looks capable of being able to challenge at least for the place money.
16:10 - VINNIE THE FISH 5/1 EW = WON (1/9)
3 mile maiden hurdle up here & firstly in my opinion there are question marks regarding distance over a fair few of these. This is something that could play nicely into VINNIE THE FISH's hands, who finished a respectable third at 50/1 last time out in a novice class 4 & in fairness he finished behind two decent sorts who have performed at a better level. That run came over 23 furlongs but looked to stay on without any trouble so today's extra 2 furlongs shouldn't be a problem especially considering i'm not sure with lots of the rivals who are making a big step up in trip, also the booking of champion jockey A P MCcoy can only be seen as a positive. Being a class 5 maiden this race definitely looks easier, so i don't think this gelding would need much improvement on last time to go close. Looks worth the EW while the price allows.
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