Yesterday's selection was a non runner which was disappointing because i was really interested to see how he was gonna fare under race conditions which looked ideal, but nevermind nothing lost & onto today. Yet another day from my point of view where a real serious bet doesn't look viable however, i have selected a few from 3 races at AYR to keep an interest in the days action, all small EW bets (nothing too serious) that looks to represent value & all follow the same trend which is form on today's forecast soft ground so hopefully those will go well. Good luck if you do get involved.
AYR -
15:10 - DELORES ROCK EW 11/2 (7/12) = LOST & STRONG MAN EW 12/1 = LOST (5/12)
A 13 runner decent looking handicap here & while a case could be made for a few the two selected look as if today's conditions should suit & therefore hopefully can go well. Starting with DELORES ROCK who admittedly hasn't been in great form this season but this filly hasn't yet had the opportunity to go on soft ground which if you look back through her career performances to date is certainly the ground where her best form has come. Her best performances came back towards the end of last season when she won both here at Ayr on heavy ground & at Carlisle on soft. Staying on really well on both occasions & winning by a decent gap both times of 4 & 5 lengths. Given that impressive run on heavy any more rain here today would surely be a bonus. She has been largely racing in class 4 races this year (class 5 today) & dropped back down to class 5 company last time out over 6f on ground that was still probably too quick & he stayed on well to finish a decent 4th of 10 runners so today's 7f trip looks fine, looks well in towards the foot of the weights & all in all if improving on last time out on what look more favourable conditions today & perhaps brining forward one of them displays he showed last season then he could be at the right end & looks worth the EW money. Secondly in this one have gone for another small bet on STRONG MAN at what looks to be perhaps a price too big at 12/1,although he has form on a variety of grounds he is another who has gone well on soft ground but doesn't get it particularly often. His second to last run was a decent performance when although well beaten by the favourite he was a decent 2nd of 11 runners under similar conditions as today & he looks better off in the weights today as well. I think there are a few in this race who would be suited by better ground & will have to prove they can deliver on soft so STRONG MAN looks worth a small EW at a decent price.
15:40 - EUTROPIUS EW 9/1 = LOST (4/11)
EUTROPIUS is another who's form of late isn't anything special but he has been running in better races than this one including a pair of pretty warm class 3 events on his last two outings & dropping back down to a class 5 today looks a much more realistic prospect. He has only had to deal with soft ground on one occasions but ran a good race that day finishing 3rd under a penalty, that race came over 8f at Southwell & had it been over today's 7f i think he would have gone even closer. Has won in this class & over this trip so there are no issues on that front. Ridden by Danny Tudhope who in my eyes has emerged as one of the better jockeys this season so that should be seen as a positive. Is weighted better today than when finishing third in his only soft ground race & if capable of replicating that sort of form here today he looks worth a small EW bet & could make a sound claim for the places.
16:40 - WELL PAINTED EW 6/1 = LOST (Pulled up) & GRANDORIO EW 9/1 = PLACED (3/11)
On paper this looks another tight contest but once again i think the two selected show solid credentials on today's forecast ground & look capable of going well. Starting with WELL PAINTED a horse who has certainly ran his best races on easing ground, most notably when a keeping on second at Doncaster in a class 2 event over 8f last June. Was also not disgraced when a staying on to finish 8th of 26 runners at last years Royal Ascot meeting. Has been in not such good form this season but showed better signs when staying on to get 4th in 13 runner event at kempton latest & considering he is always staying on over these trips i think he is a horse who should do well upped to 10f today for the first time. In this field the soft ground could definitely play to his strengths & i wouldn't be surprised to see him become the subject of plenty of market support nearer the off. All in all he looks to have a good profile for giving this race a good crack & looks worth the EW while the price allows. GRANDORIO has shown on a couple of occasions that he can be a big player at this level, particularly when winning by a 5 length margin in this class second to last time out, that race did come on good to firm ground so its hard to take too much out of that in terms of today's race but he did also convincingly win a race of this type at Newcastle on soft ground last August so that form stands him in better stead for this one here today. Looks well in towards the foot of the weights & if repeating the above form he could be a threat in this one, at 9/1 he looks worth a small EW bet as i think ultimately he could be a tad overpriced.
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