14:35 - SEEK THE FAIR LAND - 1.5 Points EW @ 4/1 (pays 1/4 odds for a place) = 5th
Lee Carter's Gelding has finished a credible runner up in a couple of similar events recently & today looks another good opportunity for him to post a decent effort. Last time out he stayed on well from the back only to be beaten by 3 parts of a length close home, Valmina was his conqueror that day & he goes again in this today; However, after racing off the same weights last time, SEEK THE FAIR LAND now has a 10 lb pull in the weights over his rival. The appointment of the 7 lb claiming jockey Louis Steward looks a shrewd one by the trainer since it will see his gelding sit nicely at the foot of the weights. There a plenty in this field that could have cases made for them & a lot of these runners are certainly not strangers having often run against one another. SEEK THE FAIR LAND looks the one to be with here for me with the 7 lb his apprentice jockey takes off looking a big eye catcher. If turning up in similar form to that of late then he looks well worth the EW at 4/1 since the race pays 1/4 odds for a place.
Ascot -
15:00 - BIG FELLA THANKS - 0.75 Points EW @ 10/1 = 6th
Tom George's veteran looks as though he could be a tad overpriced here in a race that looks much more suited for him nowadays than those he has faced of late. A former winner at both Listed & Grade 3 level returns to the trip of 22f today which should be well suited. In relation to this race, a couple of this old boy's results from back in January & March 2013 catch the eye. Back in January 13 he won a very similar handicap contest to this over 21f at Wincanton, pulling clear from the last to win nicely having carried top weight. He followed that up with a respectable 2nd over 20f at Newbury in a Grade 3 event. Admittedly he has been below par in his 2 runs this season but it isn't unreasonable for him to take longer to get into his stride as he gets older & he should be right for this now. Tom George has opted for the 5 lb Claiming
A Conlon to take the ride which could prove a valuable deduction. Overall BIG FELLA THANKS has some solid form to his name & if capable of running up to some of the better form mentioned above then there is no reason why he cannot run a good race.
Haydock -
15:15 - VINTAGE STAR - 1 Point EW @ 7/1 = PLACED (2nd)
VINTAGE STAR traveled strongly for most of the welsh national before flattening out in the final half mile & the drop back to 3 mile 1 furlong today looks ideal. Should be at home on this ground after that welsh national display where he looked one of the most likely winners inside the final mile but found the ultra test of stamina too much before finally finishing a creditable 6th of 20 runners. Before that Chepstow marathon he ran a strong 2nd in listed company over 24f Newcastle finishing just a neck behind the 140 rated Hey Big Spender. Don't get it wrong there are plenty of chances in the race, Merry King is one who's well fancied here after he ran on to finish 2 lengths in front of VINTAGE STAR at Chepstow LTO but I wouldn't be surprised to see Sue Smiths Gelding reverse those places back at this trip. All in all Smith's 8 year old has looked very much on the up this season & in a race that looks more suitable he can go well once again.
Weekend Football (18/01/14)
From @BGibbs92
Arsenal vs Fulham (15:00)
League leaders Arsenal play host to a somewhat struggling Fulham side in a fixture which looks another good opportunity for Arsenal to keep setting the pace at the head of affairs in what has been excellent season for Arsene Wenger's side thus far. Arsenal boast a home record this season which has seen them go unbeaten since the first day of the season, winning 7 times & accumulating a goal difference of +12 in the process. On the other hand Fulham are a side who have struggled somewhat on their travels, their 3 wins have come against sides who all currently reside in the bottom 3 & have scored only 8 goals on the road compared to the 24 they've conceded. Rene Meulensteen's side are likely to carry improved confidence after their 3-0 victory over Norwich in midweek (FA Cup) but it is still hard to envisage them causing an upset today. This season Arsenal have looked much more like the Wenger sides of old & have played with a passing style & flair that teams have found very hard to deal with, if on song today then Arsenal should have too much quality for a struggling Fulham side.
Man City vs Cardiff (15:00)
Emphatic & ruthless are just two words that could be used to describe Man City this season. They are 10 from 10 at the Etihad so far & will be looking to maintain their 100% home record today as they welcome bottom 3 side Cardiff. Cardiff have been the talking point of plenty recently; however, it has been the actions of extraordinary owner Vincent Tan which has caught they eye rather than their football. The Sacking of Malky Mackay was something that raised the eyebrows of football's community as a whole. New appointment Ole Solskjaer is still very much finding his feet as a premier league manager & only his 5th game in charge is certainly not the ideal time to play a rampant Man City side who have scored 99 goals from 33 games in all competitions this season. Cardiff have managed just the one win on the road this season, scoring only 5 goals & conceding 17. Statistics that are no match for Man City's perfect 10 at home, scoring 38 goals in the process & conceding just 5. No doubt about it Cardiff are in tough times, fighting for survival in this division & should be no realistic match for Man City who have had their firepower boosted further by Sergio Aguero's recent return to fitness.
Betting Selections -
Arsenal -1 (2-0)
Man City -1 (4-2)
4 Point Double @ 5/4 (Bet 365) = WON
Also -
Arsenal -1 (2-0)
Man City over 2.5 team goals (4-2)
Liverpool -1 (2-2)
Tottenham double chance (win or draw)
1 point 4 fold @ 5/1 (Bet 365) = LOST
From @BGibbs92
Arsenal vs Fulham (15:00)
League leaders Arsenal play host to a somewhat struggling Fulham side in a fixture which looks another good opportunity for Arsenal to keep setting the pace at the head of affairs in what has been excellent season for Arsene Wenger's side thus far. Arsenal boast a home record this season which has seen them go unbeaten since the first day of the season, winning 7 times & accumulating a goal difference of +12 in the process. On the other hand Fulham are a side who have struggled somewhat on their travels, their 3 wins have come against sides who all currently reside in the bottom 3 & have scored only 8 goals on the road compared to the 24 they've conceded. Rene Meulensteen's side are likely to carry improved confidence after their 3-0 victory over Norwich in midweek (FA Cup) but it is still hard to envisage them causing an upset today. This season Arsenal have looked much more like the Wenger sides of old & have played with a passing style & flair that teams have found very hard to deal with, if on song today then Arsenal should have too much quality for a struggling Fulham side.
Man City vs Cardiff (15:00)
Emphatic & ruthless are just two words that could be used to describe Man City this season. They are 10 from 10 at the Etihad so far & will be looking to maintain their 100% home record today as they welcome bottom 3 side Cardiff. Cardiff have been the talking point of plenty recently; however, it has been the actions of extraordinary owner Vincent Tan which has caught they eye rather than their football. The Sacking of Malky Mackay was something that raised the eyebrows of football's community as a whole. New appointment Ole Solskjaer is still very much finding his feet as a premier league manager & only his 5th game in charge is certainly not the ideal time to play a rampant Man City side who have scored 99 goals from 33 games in all competitions this season. Cardiff have managed just the one win on the road this season, scoring only 5 goals & conceding 17. Statistics that are no match for Man City's perfect 10 at home, scoring 38 goals in the process & conceding just 5. No doubt about it Cardiff are in tough times, fighting for survival in this division & should be no realistic match for Man City who have had their firepower boosted further by Sergio Aguero's recent return to fitness.
Betting Selections -
Arsenal -1 (2-0)
Man City -1 (4-2)
4 Point Double @ 5/4 (Bet 365) = WON
Also -
Arsenal -1 (2-0)
Man City over 2.5 team goals (4-2)
Liverpool -1 (2-2)
Tottenham double chance (win or draw)
1 point 4 fold @ 5/1 (Bet 365) = LOST
I think Arsenal -1, Man City -1 double never was 5/4 !!! It is about 1/2
ReplyDelete4 fold odds wrong too.
I can assure you it was 5/4 (bet365) bare in mind this was 2-3 hours ago; however, i have just check & the odds now are - Arsenal -1 (4/7) & Man City -1 (4/11) when you combine those 2 into a double the price pays just short of 5/4 (around 1.14/1, where as 5/4 translates into 1.20/1). I'm not sure where you've found odds of 1/2 for that because even now on bet 365 as i have just said it pays fractionally short of 5/4.
ReplyDeleteNo mate, you are wrong. You said Arsenal -1.5 and Man City -1.5 odds. But the picks are Arsenal -1 ( 1.25 decimal on bet365) and Man City -1 ( 1.11 decimal now).
ReplyDelete-1 hc and -1.5 hc are not same !!!! Be careful. Your selections odds under 1/2 now.
I'm fully aware -1.5 is not the same as -1 i never once advised nor mentioned -1.5 i don't know where you have got that from. Please look on the Bet 365 website you will find under alternative match handicap, Arsenal -1 is still (4/7) while man city -1 is now (2/7) a double which would still pay over evens for the double. I cannot help that the price shortens, if you are aware of the how the market works then you would realise that popular bets will obviously shorten. The double still pays over even money which proves you are wrong in saying its a 1/2 double. Do you have an email address, i would be more than happy to send you a photograph of a bet slip that somebody has kindly just sent me to prove that i am right?
ReplyDeleteYes, but you didn't say how it is a 3 way handicap ! So If Arsenal win only one goal we will lose! I said additional asian handicap and there Arsenal -1 is 1/4 but that is 2 way so if arseanl win by one goal, I won't lose.
ReplyDeleteIt is a misunderstanding, but not my mistake!
So the picks are -1.5 as I said earlier !!!
ReplyDeleteYou accused me of putting up an incorrect price which i have not, you also said i was wrong which i am not. I have advised a double on Arsenal & Man City both -1 so yes if they only win by 1 goal then the bet will lose, but that's not relevant to you accusing me of lying about a price. I'm not sure how advising a -1 bet is confusing, I've had no other complaints. As for a '3 way handicap' i'm not sure what you are on about. I haven't advised an Asian handicap or anything other than a simple -1 which for Arsenal is still 4/7 with bet 365.
ReplyDeleteThey are not -1.5, if you tell me an email address i will send you a photograph on a bet slip proving they are -1 & that the double was 5/4
ReplyDeleteOMG man, you are very amateur ! No need photo. European handicap -1 (3 way) is same as -1.5 Asian handicap( 2 way ). Both need 2 or more goals victory.
ReplyDeleteGood luck with your picks!
I'm fully aware that the bet advised requires a 2 goal margin victory. That isn't what this conversation was about, you were making accusations of putting up incorrect prices? so have you retracted that now then? since you have been unable to look at the correct prices that were clearly displayed on the bet 365 website, i offered you proof via a photograph. Since you don't want that i will assume that you accept you were wrong to make those accusations.
ReplyDeleteNo man, you are wrong again. If you would be a professional punter, you have to know your picks were deceptive. You didn't say how these were european hc picks or asian handicap picks. As I said european -1 and asian -1 are not same. Professional punters use asian hc, or if not, they always warn.
ReplyDeleteAnd no, you don't know mate what is the different between eu hc -1 and asian hc -1.
You wrote the proof :
"They are not -1.5, if you tell me an email address i will send you a photograph on a bet slip proving they are -1 & that the double was 5/4"
How is that proof ? was stating that haven't advised -1.5 bets. Anyone who can read this will be able to see clearly your arguing for the sake of it. I have offered to prove that i was not lying about a price which is what you accused me of doing in the first place? you then stated that i had put a price up for an Asian -1.5 when i had not, you made that up.
ReplyDeleteIf your not happy with this blog, then simply don't read it. Nobody is forcing you to. I suggest that you stop writing on here & wasting both of our times.
That was a proof, because You wrote these are not -1.5 hc picks. These are!!!!!!!! But I'm already see now, you will never understand it.
ReplyDeletePlease tell me, where do you see, how I wrote: You are lying ?
In first post I thought these are asian -1 picks, and those were on lower odds. That's all.
But these were -1 european hc odds, and that the odds are correct then.
Yes, I made only one mistake. I thought you are a professional. But you are an amateur! It is not a problem, only good to know.
A friendly advice from me to you in your future picks. Use this:
Team -1 ( 3 way hc ) or Team -1 ( asian )
Big difference!
Good luck with your blog.
You didn't say the words 'you are lying' but you said "double never was 5/4" which implies that you thought i was lying. Secondly I've always only seen it necessary to differentiate between the two only if you are having an Asian handicap in which case the bet would have read - Arsenal -1.5 Asian handicap otherwise it's not necessary to write European handicap -1, you simply put Arsenal -1. You are clearly of a different opinion which is fine, I did not lie about the price nor have i ever lied about a price.
ReplyDelete