Thursday 6th November 2013 - Daily Tips

Tuesday turned out to be a day that brought around steady profit in the end thanks to the single & double bet both landing at Kempton to make up for a poor showing from the bet at Southwell. Onto today & its a day that contains much more involvement than recently with a few that look to have been found good opportunities & a few EW's that look as though they can go well for a small bet. Here they are;

Musselburgh -

13:30 - AKDAM 8 Point Win 11/8 = WON

This 3 year old gelding hasn't found it easy to win this season since getting his head in front at Hexham back in June, but is yet to finish outside the top 3 in the 5 runs he's had since that victory. That win back in the summer proved that he can get the job done at this level on his day & if taking a generous view on his runs since he has been unfortunate to find just a one or two too good each time. His best efforts since that victory came a month apart in late august & september both times hitting the places (2nd & 3rd) & on both occasions he was less than a couple of lengths behind the winner with the rest of the field well back. Both of those runs came over 17f in class 4 event (class 4 today). Although this is also a class 4, in complete fairness this looks a weaker race with only 4 runners, two of whom are debutants over timber & it looks on all evidence that this could be AKDAM's easiest opportunity to add to his tally. Forecast good ground should pose no threats. Obviously you have to take a bit of a chance here with the two newcomers, who both showed decent form on the flat & could quite conceivably be decent over hurdles but if AKDAM runs up to the pick of his form here today then they would have to put in quite a big debut performance in my opinion to beat him. All in all this looks a good opportunity for AKDAM to go close & seems worth a little bet.

14:30 - RATHVAWN BELLE 5 point Win 9/4 = LOST (2nd)

Similarly to the bet above, Lucinda Russel's mare might just have been found a good opportunity to go very close on her second start over hurdles. There is no doubt she showed the best form out of the field here in bumpers & although she was a disappointing odds on 2nd on her hurdles debut at Hexham 26 days ago it was her first run for 190 days & she may just have needed it. It wouldn't be surprising to see her improve for that run & despite last time out being only a 4 runner contest it was a class 4 novice hurdle (drops into class 5 maiden company here) & the her conqueror that day has gone on to run at grade 3 level since so she wasn't beaten by any old runner. The drop back to 2 miles looks as though it should suit after all she did win over 2 miles on her bumper debut. The forecast good ground shouldn't pose a problem & any rain that could change that would seem to be in her favour considering she's won on heavy. All in all if she is on her game & makes any likely improvement after that first run over hurdles she could be up there at the business end.

15:30 - WEYBRIDGE LIGHT 1 point EW 12/1 = LOST (5th)

Class 4 handicap hurdle for this one & WEYBRIDGE LIGHT might just be overpriced at 11/1 when you consider a combination of two things, firstly he has shown some decent form at a similar level recently & secondly receives weight from the majority of the field here. His best form was when winning a class 4 (class 4 today) handicap over 20f at Sedgefield back in early October, also posted a respectable third last time out over 16f but to me it looks as though that trip may have been slightly inadequate & the return to 20f here looks a definite positive. Has form on a variety of grounds so there should be no worries in that department. Like with most handicap stuff there are plenty in here that have chances but for me when you consider the above, WEYBRIDGE LIGHT might just represent some value at a nice price & looks worth a small EW bet.

Towcester -

14:40 - GIZZIT 1.5 points EW 7/1 = LOST 

Handicap chase here (class 4) & one who catches the eye at a nice price is the Karen George trained gelding GIZZIT. He is still unexposed as a chaser after just two starts & comes into this as one of only 3 with previous chasing experience. Last time out he finished 4 of 7 over today's trip of 2m 1f but was only a total of 8 lengths behind the leader, which isn't terrible considering it was his first run for 139 days & in theory he should be sharper for the run. A big positive is that he will get weight all round here today, combine this with the fact that he has more experience over fences than the majority & he begins to make appeal. Has form on a variation of ground but seems to prefer the easing ground so the forecast good to soft should suit & any rain would probably be in his favour. Again its a handicap so cases could be made for a few but GIZZET has experience over fences which is more than a lot of these can offer, combined with the fact he has conditions to suit & going off lowest weight he looks a worthy prospect for an each way punt.

Wolverhampton -

17:50 AN CHULAINN 5 point Win 5/2 = WON

6f Maiden for this one & AN CHULAIN trained by Mark Johnston & ridden by the AW's man of the moment Silvestre De Sousa looks the one to be with on the pick of her respectable form. Her best form came in a valuable 6f 2 yr old event at the Curragh where she finished 3rd of 17 in behind a couple of decent sorts. She hasn't quite gone on to achieve anything major after that promising run but she has at least gone on to place & finish 4th in better races than this one. Last time out when finishing 4th at Ayr on soft ground in a class 4 maiden (class 6 today)  is form that looks as though it may work out here, the horse who finished a few lengths in front of her in second has gone on to win a maiden here at wolves by a tidy margin so thats positive, she has also placed in a class 3 maiden over 7f. That race was over 7f & she progressed nicely into second before the final furlong so thoughts are that she may have gone closer over 6f & the drop back here looks to be in favour. Makes AW debut which is always a slight concern but she has shown form on a variety of turf ground so in theory she shouldn't have too much trouble handling the surface & if she does she looks to have a big chance. Jolly Red Jeanz is the one who looks to be the main danger & currently occupies joint favouritism in the market & although he ran a decent race over C&D last time out to finish 2nd in a class 5 maiden, it didn't look a particularly strong race & i personally think she may find it hard to beat AN CHULAINN if shes running up to her best form. AN CHULAINN will have to give 4lb away to what looks her main rival but if running her best then this is something she can overcome. All in all this Mark Johnston runner looks to have the opportunity of going close here if matching her best form & taking to the surface, looks a good bet at a price of 5/2 which seems somewhat generous.

18:20 WILHANA 4 point Win 2/1

Another maiden race, this time over the slightly extended mile trip & WILHANA after finishing 2nd on both of her starts to date looks to be the clear form pick for all she is hard to win with but looks to be worth another chance here tonight. Ran a respectable second on debut over C&D & looked in need to the experience, as a result she was heavily backed into odds on favouritism next time out again over C&D & she ended up going down by a neck, again giving here running but will be viewed as a bitter disappointment given her price tag which was never justifiable as an odds on bet so that should be ignored in my opinion. She no doubt has ability but just looks a slightly difficult one to strike with but coming into this race which certainly looks to lack depth she should be wiser after a couple of efforts & can go close once again. The main rival looks to be the godolphin newcomer History Book who looks a decent prospect on paper, if proving to be anything fairly special & of course ready to go first time then she could be a danger for a massive yard who know how to get a winner first time out, this being said it is no guarantee that she will perform first time out & is likely to be very short for a debutant, if WILHANA is showing any improvement she could make her experience count. In honesty i could certainly get this wrong but for me all in all WILHANA looks a fair price at 2/1 so you don't have to go big to get a nice return & for all she looks to have the best form going & is worth a go to get it right on the third time of asking.

Multiples -

DOUBLE TO WIN 2 points @ around 7/1

13:30 Musselburgh - AKDAM = WON
&
17:50 Wolverhampton - AN CHULAINN = WON

Also

SMALL STAKES LUCKY 15 TO WIN (1.5 point overall)

13:30 Musseburgh - AKDAM = WON

14:30 Musselburgh - RATHVAWN BELLE = LOST (2nd)

17:50 Wolverhampton - AN CHULAINN = WON

18:20 Wolverhampton - WILHANA = LOST (2nd)

Pay out for lucky 15 pretty much returned stake.