The last blog was on friday & it was a good day which generated solid profit with 1 winner & 1 placed from only 4 EW selections. Today in my mind is somewhat of a frustrating day of racing with the majority of cards dominated by weak maidens & either really big field handicaps or very small field handicaps. Have managed to find a few races that seem to offer up some good EW value, here they are;
Thirsk -
17:00 - Best EW SIR NOD 8/1 = LOST (5/11)
SIR NOD ran a good second in this race last year & from looking at things, this old boy looks to have a decent chance of hitting the frame again. Ran a close 2nd (beaten by a neck) last time out at Redcar in a class 6 (today class 5) & all be it off a lower mark, today's 5lb claimer can make up for the increase. The fact that this gelding ran a good race here last year under very similar circumstances & even off a 2lb higher official rating means that if putting that sort of performance forward today he has a good chance of being at the right end of the field at the post. 8/1 looks good value & is worth the EW punt.
Windsor -
18:30 - Best EW PIERS GRAVESTON 6/1 = NON RUNNER
Big field seller for this one, which is something that i wouldn't usually fancy however having looked through a lot of runners seem very easily to discount. Very short priced favourite who is easy to like based on recent form however i think she is very short based on realistic chances. PIERS GRAVESTON in my mind looks to have a similar chance & is much better value at 6's, ran a solid 3rd of 13 last time out in a class 6 handicap (this a seller so should be a weaker race) off 1lb higher in the OR doesn't show spectacular form before that but that run was his first go at the trip & it seemed to suit nicely. If able to put forward a similar run today then this gelding looks to have a good chances of hitting the place money.
Wolverhampton -
19:50 - Best EW BLACK TRUFFLE 7/1 = PLACED (3/11)
On paper this horse shows probably the best AW form on offer & is very consistent on the surface for that matter with figures for his last 5 runs on the AW reading, 25122 all but one come in fields of 12 runners or more. Ran on well to take second from a poor position last time out & although could not reach an impressive winner produce a good late run staying on very nicely. Was seen winning on the AW back in june in a 14 runner race all be it off a 5lb lower mark but run on very well that day aswell & last time out ran off a mark only lb lower. Looks well in towards the foot of the weights for this race & ultimately if BLACK TRUFFLE is bringing near his top AW game then he could be overprice at odds of 7/1 & is worth the EW money.
20:50 Best EW OPUS MAXIMUS 12/1 = LOST
Have selected one here in this biggish field that the market suggests is a relative outsider, however in my mind he looks to offer up some of the better AW form in the race. OPUS MAXIMUS, has run two 9f races on the AW this year & has finished 4 of 12 & 2 of 13 both Over C&D & both from only 1lb lower in the ratings, Also has the luxury of going off lowest weight in the race today, when finishing second here in late june he beat today's second fav by 2 & 3/4 lengths. If bringing that sort of form today then in my mind this gelding looks overpriced & has the chance of hitting the places.
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