As typical of saturday racing, it looks a difficult day from a betting point of view with lots of tight races & big fields dominating the cards, it would be easy to fall into the 'trap' & pick out plenty that you aren't that confident about which could be a costly mistake, while there should be some exciting races that should be interesting the action looks best watched today from my point of view so it shall be a NO BET day from me. Don't particularly like having these days off, but sometimes they are necessary & anyone who bets on the horses seriously can't honestly say they have selections everyday of the week. With the month drawing to a close today, it's a good time to update the profit & loss, It's been a solid/steady month of profit which is pleasing & although not quite reaching the heights of last month in terms if my personal points, the level stakes return is very similar. It's solid profit & these are the months that are needed to act as the 'Bread & Butter' throughout the year so i am happy with how things are going so far. Its good to see that the blog is getting some regular viewers & i hope it can continue to grow.
August - Profit & Loss
From 11 Days Tips = + 40 points profit (my actual figures)
Alternatively for a £10 level stake on each selection (so £5 EW for each way selections) this month (11 days worth of tips) the return would be = + £354 profit
It's been a nice & steady month making some decent profit, the blog will be back on monday where hopefully can kick start september with a good day. If you do get involved in today's racing be cautious & as always BE LUCKY.
Thursday 29th August 2013 - Daily Tips
A real trappy day yesterday which is why i only selected the one which paid off as it was a winning selection. Another poor day today by the looks of things, with lots of 'hard to call' events, i have picked out a few that look decent value for a small bet. Most racing is best watched again today & although i have got involved in a few, its only small stakes today.
Hamilton -
15:40 Best EW ANOTHER FOR JOE 13/2 = LOST (4/9)
Bit of a chance taken here on ANOTHER FOR JOE, looks to be back over a trip that will suit better today & in a race where only a few others make a decent appeal. Back in June this gelding ran a good second & fairly decent 6th both over 10f admittedly was better off in the weights for these races but based on this form he looks to have a decent place claim in todays field (class 4). He did in fact win this race last year off a similar mark & under today's experienced rider Graham Lee. Showed some promise last time when finishing 4 of 9 over 8f. I think overall if he can bring his better form to the table today then his price of 13/2 makes him a decent EW shout & on a day where not a lot else appeals is worth a small stake.
Fontwell -
16:30 NICKY NUTJOB Win 7/2 = WON (1/6)
Has run very creditably on his last 4 outings over hurdles, most notably when roughly a length 2nd round this course over 24f in a class 5 at the beginning of August & had the race been over today's trip of 23f he may just have won it, that race also can in a much larger field than today. Also ran pretty well last time out in a class 3 (today's race class 4) 7 again was just outclassed on the flat & may have got closer over a furlong less. Looks well in on the weights today & the form mentioned above seems to transfer well into this race. If running up to his recent runs he could go close here. While the price is too short for the EW he is worth the smallish stake punt on the nose as he might just do it here.
17:00 PRINCLEY HERO Win 4/1 = LOST (2/7)
Very short price favourite in this one in the form of Maid of Silk & while he was a good winner last time out over 22f there is absolutely no guarantee that he will relish the extra 5 furlongs today over this 27f trip, especially when he has to carry a penalty. PRINCELY HERO has some good previous form over today's trip so there should be no problem for him on that front. Looks a versatile horse when it come to trips as he has won at varied distances. Back in march he finished 2nd twice over today's C&D in a class 4 race (class 5 today). Also was a decisive winner over 26f in april off a very similar mark. If bringing this form today then there is no reason he shouldn't go close around a course that he clearly likes & perhaps today will be his day at this trip. In all honesty i might be wrong & the favourite might take to the trip & complete a double, however he is far too short & under these conditions PRINCLEY HERO is a much better option in my mind so the odds of 4/1 look good value & he is worth the punt on the nose.
Killarney -
19:00 Best EW THE REAL ARTICLE 5/1 = PLACED (3/10)
Decent race for this one as pretty much all of Ireland's top jumps jockeys take to the stage here for a nursery chase so should be a decent encounter & i couldn't resist having a little EW punt on THE REAL ARTICLE who looks a decent prospect & is ridden by Barry Geraghty who in my eyes is easily up there with the best over the jumps. Was an easy winner last time out in a more valuable race than this all be it with only 5 runners, but he jumped round very soundly & wasn't really asked too much when stretching away comfortably at the end. That came over a furlong shorter but considering he wasn't asked too much today's trip should be no problem & this gelding finished 2nd of 14 over today's trip at Roscommon on good to firm, so that form looks fairly useful also. There are a definitely a few in with chances in this race but i think if THE REAL ARTICLE turns up here in the same mood as last time then he can certainly make a bold claim for the places & looks worth the EW bet.
Wednesday 28th July 2013 - Daily Tips
Well there really isn't nothing too much catching the eye today & on day's like these it is best to be sensible & most races look best watched in my opinion with it hard to confidently get behind much. As anyone who has been onto the blog much will know that i am not one for forcing a selection in every race possible like many tipsters, but i prefer to pick out the bets of the day which look best value in my eyes & i will always accompany them with supporting analysis to back up reason for the bet, Some days i might tip 10 horses that look good value & others it might only be 1 or 2 it really depends on the cards on particular day. Certainly for this afternoons cards anyway there is only the one that i am getting involved with & that is the first at Catterick.
Catterick -
14:10 - SKYES THE LIMIT Win EVENS = WON (1/7)
A 7 runner maiden for the opener here & SKYES THE LIMIT offers up the best form on paper, having ran a decent second on debut in similar conditions in a class 3 conditions race, Was only 5 of 7 following that last time out but that was on the AW & he can be forgiven that based on the surface in my opinion. Based on that solid debut effort there is no reason why he shouldn't go really well after a break today in a much less valuable race (class 6 maiden). unless either the debutants run an absolute stormer, this should be SKYES THE LIMIT's to lose & this colt won't get too many better opportunities than this to get off the mark. Hopefully he can run a similar race than he did on debut & today could easily be his day, looks worth the punt at evens as on paper he has the strongest credentials.
Tuesday 27th August 2013 - Daily Tips
Today's Selections -
Ripon -
15:05 Best EW BOUNTY HUNTER 7/1 = PLACED (2/9)
Drops in class after last time out from a class 2 back down to a class 4 where this gelding has shown some decent form, most notably of which at York in July this year, finishing a close second of 10. followed that decent run by decisively winning a maiden race under today's jockey. if bringing forward that form today & since wasn't completely outclassed in a higher grade than this he could be slightly over priced & looks worth a small EW punt.
16:45 Best EW DESERT CREEK 7/1 = LOST (4/10)
Another one who drops in class here today, was pretty poor last twice in class 3's (today class 5) but looks to be coming back towards a decent mark & has nicely won in this class before. no better form than in the back end of 2012 completing a hat trick off similar marks as today & all in bigger fields & in a higher class. Admittedly carrying top weight is not ideal & will have to overcome that but if finding similar form to that just mentioned in this class of this mark DESERT CREEK could go well & is worth the EW in my mind.
Epsom -
16:30 Best EW EPSOM SALTS 9/1 = LOST (6/9)
Has been disappointing this year however, has been running over trips that don't look to suit & in better races than this one. One thing he does this gelding does have on his side is that he has dropped well below a previous winning mark round here at Epsom. Back in July last year was a tidy winner over C&D in a class 4 (today class 5). Will have to find some of his old form but if he can then he is off a dangerous mark & looks well weighted against this field. If getting it right against some rivals stepping up in class then he could well & while the EW is there he looks value for a small punt.
Ballinrobe -
18:05 - MAUDE ADAMS Win 3/1 = WON (1/5)
Admittedly this does look a tight affair even with this small field, Lady O'malley & Granny On Fire have been in great form & are likely to be popular, but they are both coming up the handicap & may find it a little harder now. MAUDE ADAMS is coming down the ratings & looks as if she could be well in here despite carrying top weight, won at the curragh over 8f earlier this year in a more competitive race than this (field of 13) & won quite easily to be honest. Has winning form over 10f also so today's 9f shouldn't be an issue, nor should the yielding ground. Last time out she showed some of her old promise when finishing 3rd of 14 at Naas. I could get this wrong & it does look tight but if MAUDE ADAMS finds her better form then she could go close, hopefully she can repay the faith!
18:35 - Best EW LAS ENCINAS 11/2 = PLACED (2/11)
Backed this filly last week EW over 10f at Sligo & she ran a solid second & travelled into the race really strongly. There is nothing to suggest that she won't go well again today & has the benefit of coming right from the foot of the weights. The drop back to 9f i don't think should cause a problem as she has shown form over shorter trips aswell. There was a lot to like about her strong travelling performance 7 days ago & if bringing that game today she can go well again & hopefully she can be at the right end of the field when it matters.
Sedgefield -
19:25 - CLAUDE CARTER Win 11/4 = FELL 3 OUT (Frustrating!)
Has shown some steady form of late, most notably when 3 of 14 at market rasen second to last time out off 2lb lower in the ratings. Seems to really like it here at Sedgefield & has always ran well here, including winning & finishing 2nd on his last two visits. Drops into a class 5 today for the first time in a while & looks to be one of the more solid options, hopefully he can find his previous sedgefield form & run a big race.
19:55 - MUTANAWWER Win 11/8 = WON (1/8)
Has made the frame on all three of his racecourse starts to date & was beaten only a neck over today's trip on debut & last time out only beaten by a head. Looks to be going the right way definitely in bumpers & today could be his best chance yet to get off the mark. Looks the strongest prospect for this race & unless Mccoy can get a blinder out of Dalstontosiloth or racecourse debutant Lacocodanza runs a stormer then this could well be MUTANAWWER's time to strike.
Ripon -
15:05 Best EW BOUNTY HUNTER 7/1 = PLACED (2/9)
Drops in class after last time out from a class 2 back down to a class 4 where this gelding has shown some decent form, most notably of which at York in July this year, finishing a close second of 10. followed that decent run by decisively winning a maiden race under today's jockey. if bringing forward that form today & since wasn't completely outclassed in a higher grade than this he could be slightly over priced & looks worth a small EW punt.
16:45 Best EW DESERT CREEK 7/1 = LOST (4/10)
Another one who drops in class here today, was pretty poor last twice in class 3's (today class 5) but looks to be coming back towards a decent mark & has nicely won in this class before. no better form than in the back end of 2012 completing a hat trick off similar marks as today & all in bigger fields & in a higher class. Admittedly carrying top weight is not ideal & will have to overcome that but if finding similar form to that just mentioned in this class of this mark DESERT CREEK could go well & is worth the EW in my mind.
Epsom -
16:30 Best EW EPSOM SALTS 9/1 = LOST (6/9)
Has been disappointing this year however, has been running over trips that don't look to suit & in better races than this one. One thing he does this gelding does have on his side is that he has dropped well below a previous winning mark round here at Epsom. Back in July last year was a tidy winner over C&D in a class 4 (today class 5). Will have to find some of his old form but if he can then he is off a dangerous mark & looks well weighted against this field. If getting it right against some rivals stepping up in class then he could well & while the EW is there he looks value for a small punt.
Ballinrobe -
18:05 - MAUDE ADAMS Win 3/1 = WON (1/5)
Admittedly this does look a tight affair even with this small field, Lady O'malley & Granny On Fire have been in great form & are likely to be popular, but they are both coming up the handicap & may find it a little harder now. MAUDE ADAMS is coming down the ratings & looks as if she could be well in here despite carrying top weight, won at the curragh over 8f earlier this year in a more competitive race than this (field of 13) & won quite easily to be honest. Has winning form over 10f also so today's 9f shouldn't be an issue, nor should the yielding ground. Last time out she showed some of her old promise when finishing 3rd of 14 at Naas. I could get this wrong & it does look tight but if MAUDE ADAMS finds her better form then she could go close, hopefully she can repay the faith!
18:35 - Best EW LAS ENCINAS 11/2 = PLACED (2/11)
Backed this filly last week EW over 10f at Sligo & she ran a solid second & travelled into the race really strongly. There is nothing to suggest that she won't go well again today & has the benefit of coming right from the foot of the weights. The drop back to 9f i don't think should cause a problem as she has shown form over shorter trips aswell. There was a lot to like about her strong travelling performance 7 days ago & if bringing that game today she can go well again & hopefully she can be at the right end of the field when it matters.
Sedgefield -
19:25 - CLAUDE CARTER Win 11/4 = FELL 3 OUT (Frustrating!)
Has shown some steady form of late, most notably when 3 of 14 at market rasen second to last time out off 2lb lower in the ratings. Seems to really like it here at Sedgefield & has always ran well here, including winning & finishing 2nd on his last two visits. Drops into a class 5 today for the first time in a while & looks to be one of the more solid options, hopefully he can find his previous sedgefield form & run a big race.
19:55 - MUTANAWWER Win 11/8 = WON (1/8)
Has made the frame on all three of his racecourse starts to date & was beaten only a neck over today's trip on debut & last time out only beaten by a head. Looks to be going the right way definitely in bumpers & today could be his best chance yet to get off the mark. Looks the strongest prospect for this race & unless Mccoy can get a blinder out of Dalstontosiloth or racecourse debutant Lacocodanza runs a stormer then this could well be MUTANAWWER's time to strike.
Monday 26th August 2013
Very short of time today & with the racing looking very trappy, lots of very open contests all around the cards. Its going to be a no bet day from me as i wouldn't want to pick anything without proper confidence & in all honesty who can say that they have selections everyday, some days are just best watched from my point of view.
Missed the start of august due to being abroad & since returning, its been a steady month so far, haven't quite reached the heights of last month yet, however it has been steady profit & after all in this game profit is profit.
Hopefully everyone has a good bank holiday & the blog will be back throughout the week.
If you do get involved in today's racing, be sensible & BE LUCKY!
Missed the start of august due to being abroad & since returning, its been a steady month so far, haven't quite reached the heights of last month yet, however it has been steady profit & after all in this game profit is profit.
Hopefully everyone has a good bank holiday & the blog will be back throughout the week.
If you do get involved in today's racing, be sensible & BE LUCKY!
Saturday 24th August 2013 - Daily Tips
No bet day yesterday, Thursday was a day of solid profit with 3 Singles winning & a double also from just 5 selections. Today looks to be a very tough day to call & admittedly there is little that catches the eye, particularly at the big meetings where it is very hard to convincingly side with much. There are a couple of short priced horses to like & that look worthy of their price tags, hopefully they can help to continue a week of profit.
Cartmel -
14:30 - ME AND BEN Win 4/5 = WON (1/6)
By far offers up the most solid form & there only looks like there should be two realistic challengers who both have questions to answer. ME AND BEN has placed on his last 3 starts in class 4 handicap hurdles & now drops down to a novice handicap, those last three have come over 20f, 18f & 21f & stayed on each time so the trip of 22f today doesn't look as if it should cause a problem. Mini Muck & Je'taime look the biggest threats, however mini muck is unraced over hurdles & is making her debut after 733 days off so unless she hits the ground running with an absolute belter she may not prove much of a problem & Je'taime finished a distant 5th last time out in a novice hurdle & was a mighty 85l behind the winner, carries 4lb more in the weights today & although goes with the 1st time fitting of cheek pieces she would have to improve a lot in my mind to win the race. I could get this wrong but to me it looks as if this is a golden opportunity for Fergal O'Briens mare to get off the mark & looks as if she won't get many better chances to do so.
Curragh -
17:25 - ERNEST HEMINGWAY Win 4/5 = LOST (3/5)
This O'Brien colt has been a winner on his last two starts, both in group 3's & both times has beaten today's second favourite. the first time over today's 14f by a convincing 5 lengths & last time out over the shorter 12f trip by just half a length but ERNEST HEMINGWAY coped with a rise that day & personally would have won better over today's 14f. weighted very similarly today, with in fact Royal Diamond carrying 3lb more. Voleuse De Coeurs was 3rd behind ERNEST HEMINGWAY when he won that 14f group 3 over C&D in late june, & This filly looks as if she would have to improve a fair bit today to take this race. ERNEST HEMINGWAY is considered a contender for the Irish St Ledger & this looks a good platform for him to complete the hat trick in preparation for that.
Also ME & BEN/ ERNEST HEMINGWAY DOUBLE TO WIN @ 2/1 = LOST
Thursday 22nd August 2013 - Daily Tips
Yesterday was on OK day which generated smallish steady profit thanks to some short priced winners & a good double paying 11/4. The EW's were frustrating yesterday, although they were advised as small bets in big field contests & unfortunately were unable to produce. Onto today & in my mind there isn't a great deal that stands out, which is why i've kept it down to a minimum of a few which look good value.
Ffos Las -
14:10 - KOULTAS KING Win EVENS = WON (1/8)
Has yet to win a race but is certainly going the right way having finished 2nd in 6 of his last 11 runs over hurdles, many of which came in better races than today & this could well be his time to strike. Finished 2nd last 3 runs all in class 4 handicaps (class 5 maiden today). Comes back today after a break & the Tim Vaughan yard are no strangers to getting winners straight from a break. Has the strongest consistent form in the race & certainly one of the better jockeys. If KOULTAS KING is going to get his head in front for the first time, then today is as good a chance as he is likely to get.
14:55 - Best EW JAMES POLLARD 13/2 = WON (1/8)
JAMES POLLARD Comes back over hurdles today after a time on the flat where he produced some not bad efforts. No doubt in my mind that he is stronger as a hurdler, last time out over hurdles he finished 5th of 10 in a class 3 handicap, & was a winner over today's trip in both February & April in class 3 & class 4 handicaps, drops into a class 5 claiming hurdle today & goes off a mark close to his most recent winning marks. If able to produce his previous hurdle form on his return today then he could be seen challenging at the right end of the race, worth the EW money.
15:55 - Best EW CHANGING LANES 13/2 = LOST (Pulled up)
Finished a modest 5th last time out but that was over the extended 27f & Had that come over today's 24f he would have got a lot closer considering he began to weaken 3f out. has winning form over today's trip & looking back he has winning form off higher marks than today. last time out was his first run this year so he should be better off for that & going over a more suitable trip today could he see finish closer to the front of the field. Useful claiming jockey Adam Wedge is claiming 3lb which is a positive & if building on that last run & finding some of his old form then today could be a decent day for CHANGING LANES.
York -
16:20 - Best EW SONGBIRD 5/1 = LOST (6/9)
Ran a very good neck second last time out over today's trip & in listed company. Before that was an easy winner of a handicap race. I don't think there's any doubt that this Lady Cecil trained horse has some class & today could be his big day, there are a lot of strong opposition, however lots of whom have something to prove today whether it be running in this company or over this trip. I really liked SONGBIRDS run at Newbury last time out & if bringing that form forward today with Queally in the saddle this filly could be up there are the end. While the EW price is available she is worth a punt.
Tipperary -
18:05 - FRIENDSHIP Win 6/4 = WON (1/5)
This O'Brien trained colt was an emphatic winner of a 7f maiden last time out, winning by 6 lengths & he looked like he could have given more if really necessary. It would be no surprise to see this colt improve even further & prove to classy for his rivals today, usually when the O'Briens field a runner in this size field they mean business. There are some decent rivals fielded today but i think if FRIENDSHIP turns up in the same mood as last time out he will be hard to beat. I could get this wrong but i believe this could be his stepping stone to bigger & better things in the future, therefore the punt on him here seems worthwhile. Wouldn't surprise me if come the off he was an odds on shot.
DOUBLE - KOULTAS KING & FRIENDSHIP both to WIN @ 4/1 = WON
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