Cheltenham Festival Day Four
Day 3 was another decent day at the festival in terms of selections running well, a much less profitable day than the first two but nonetheless some small profit was made on the day. Onto the fourth and final day.
13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle -
2 Selections -
BROUGHTON - 0.75 points EW @ 15/2 = Unplaced
ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR - 0.75 points EW @ 8/1 = Unplaced
Starting with the former, John Ferguson's 4 year old has acquitted himself very well since switching codes from the flat & in his 2 hurdles races so far has established himself as one of the big players in this season's novice division. On debut he ran a good close second (beaten a neck) at Doncaster (good ground) over today's trip in a grade 2, towards the line he was getting there with every stride but just couldn't get up in time. The manner in which he stayed on there gives the impression that he shouldn't want for stamina here. Last time out he was an easy winner of his trial race up at Musselburgh, he didn't beat a great deal that day so not too much more was learnt. Overall this gelding is still very much unexposed & with further improvement not unlikely he looks worth the EW bet here. Moving on, Nicky Henderson's ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR was perhaps the leading contender in this division until his shock odds on defeat last time out at Doncaster (same race as Broughton). However, he did give Ferguson's horse 6lb & can be forgiven that below par run considering he brings good looking course form to the table which is a big plus. His grade 2 win over C&D at the November meeting was impressive, particularly the strong manner in which he stayed on up the hill. Ultimately if he able to reproduce that November C&D form he looks in with a shout at a decent price.
14:05 County Hurdle
4 Selections -
CHELTENIAN - 0.75 points EW @ 9/1 = Unplaced
ALAIVAN - 0.5 points EW @ 14/1 = Unplaced
LYVIUS - 0.5 points EW @ 33/1 = Unplaced
DEEP TROUBLE - 0.25 points EW @ 40/1 = Unplaced
Starting with the Phillip Hobbs runner CHELTENIAN, not only is his name particularly fitting for this meeting, he also offers up some good form. Of that form the most notable has to be when he won the champion bumper over C&D back in 2011, staying on really well to go clear up the hill. Since then he has been lightly raced making just 4 appearances. Last time out he ran a creditable 4th in the grade 3 Betfair hurdle in very heavy ground at Newbury and the return to better ground may well see him progress further. Looks a smart prospect & if repeating the form he showed when winning the champion bumper he can run a big race. Moving onto ALAIVAN trained by Jonjo O'Neill. Shows some decent previous form at Cheltenham, particularly when finishing a close 6th in this race in 2011 and when running a good race to finish third in the 2010 Triumph Hurdle. Had a long injury setback which saw him off the track for over 900 days, since returning he put in a respectable performance to finish 2nd in a 2 mile handicap at Wincanton. Built on that by finishing 6th in the Betfair at Newbury (heavy). Should be seen to better effect on better ground and a repeat of that form shown previously would give him a shout at a very backable price. LYVIUS is another who has got some useful course form to offer up. Finished a solid second in a C&D handicap in December if able to build on that in first time blinkers he could be in with a shout of hitting the place money for jockey Barry Geraghty who has already enjoyed a successful week. Lastly, DEEP TROUBLE is one at nice big odds who could go well. Ran well to finish second in a big field handicap over C&D back at the November meeting, then followed up by winning a listed hurdle at Sandown. Can be forgiven poor run in the betfair (heavy ground) & if showing some of his early season promise here he could potentially go well at a big EW price.
16:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle -
2 Selections -
THE SKYFARMER - 0.75 points EW @ 14/1 = Unplaced
UNE ARTISTE - 0.5 points EW @ 20/1 = Unplaced
It's another of the Phillip Hobbs' runners that gets the bet here. THE SKYFARMER has done very little wrong this season, notching up a treble from his first 3 starts, including an impressive handicap hurdle win around Cheltenham. That course win did come over the shorter trip of 17f but given the manner in which he drew clear up the hill the step up to 21f today shouldn't pose too many problems. Can be forgiven a below par effort in a grade 2 at Ascot last time out given the heavy ground. Back at the course which seemed to suit well last time he was here & back on better ground this 6 year old looks capable of going well for a trainer who has been in good form this festival. The mare UNE ARTISTE for Nicky Henderson is another horse who has some really smart Cheltenham form over the shorter trip (17f). She looked a smart sort when winning the grade 3 Fred Winter Hurdle at the 2012 festival & followed that up with another comfortable course win in listed class. Has won some less competitive events over today's trip, combined with the fact she has handled Cheltenham well before gives the impression she can go well over this longer trip. Jeremiah McGrath takes off a useful 3lb, overall looks potentially well handicapped and is another who can run well at bigger odds.
17:15 Grand Annual Chase -
NED BUNTLINE - 0.75 points EW @ 8/1 = PLACED (2nd)
Noel Meade's gelding has shown a decent level of form in Ireland since he went chasing & having travelled over for this, NED BUNTLINE looks to have a decent chance. Yet to finish outside the first 3 on his 3 chases to date (finishing 3rd, 1st & 2nd), probably most impressive of which was when finishing 3rd behind Ballycasey who ran a respectable 4th in the RSA (grade 1) on Tuesday. Has run on a variety of ground including good to yielding so shouldn't be a problem there. Realistically its hard to quite match up his Irish form to that of the British contingent, but this gelding was once a narrow runner up to recent Champion Hurdle winner Jezki, so some class could certainly be there. The negative would have to be that this will be his first run in Britain and more importantly his first at Cheltenham. However, he looks worth taking a chance on for the EW punt since he is unexposed over fences and should be able to run a good race if handling the course.
Thursday 13th March 2014 - Cheltenham Festival: Day Three
Cheltenham Festival Day Three -
Day two was another good day profit wise, with 3 EW horses placing in addition to 22/1 & 6/1 winners. Same as before though no time to dwell as the action comes thick and fast. Unfortunately have been not been able to get write up's done for today's picks, apologies for that but here they are;
13:30 JLT Novice Chase -
TAQUIN DU SEUIL - 0.5 points EW @ 9/1 = WINNER
14:05 Pertemps Hurdle -
3 Selections -
IF IN DOUBT - 0.75 points EW @ 7/1 = Unplaced
JOSIES ORDERS - 0.5 points EW @ 12/1 = Unplaced
UTOPIE DES BORDES - 0.5 points EW @ 20/1 = Unplaced
14:40 Ryanair Chase -
2 Selections -
DYNASTE - 2 points WIN @ 7/2 = WINNER
AL FEROF - 0.75 points EW @ 5/1 = Unplaced
15:20 World Hurdle -
AT FISHERS CROSS - 0.75 points EW @ 9/1 = PLACED (3rd)
BIG BUCKS - 2 point WIN @ 4/1 = Unplaced
16:00 Byrne Group Plate -
2 Selections -
COLOUR SQUADRON - 0.75 Points EW @ 8/1 = PLACED (2nd)
THIRD INTENTION - 0.5 Points EW @ 14/1 = Unplaced (5th)
16:40 Kim Muir Challenge Cup -
BUDDY BOLERO - 0.5 Points EW @ 12/1 = Faller
Day two was another good day profit wise, with 3 EW horses placing in addition to 22/1 & 6/1 winners. Same as before though no time to dwell as the action comes thick and fast. Unfortunately have been not been able to get write up's done for today's picks, apologies for that but here they are;
13:30 JLT Novice Chase -
TAQUIN DU SEUIL - 0.5 points EW @ 9/1 = WINNER
14:05 Pertemps Hurdle -
3 Selections -
IF IN DOUBT - 0.75 points EW @ 7/1 = Unplaced
JOSIES ORDERS - 0.5 points EW @ 12/1 = Unplaced
UTOPIE DES BORDES - 0.5 points EW @ 20/1 = Unplaced
14:40 Ryanair Chase -
2 Selections -
DYNASTE - 2 points WIN @ 7/2 = WINNER
AL FEROF - 0.75 points EW @ 5/1 = Unplaced
15:20 World Hurdle -
AT FISHERS CROSS - 0.75 points EW @ 9/1 = PLACED (3rd)
BIG BUCKS - 2 point WIN @ 4/1 = Unplaced
16:00 Byrne Group Plate -
2 Selections -
COLOUR SQUADRON - 0.75 Points EW @ 8/1 = PLACED (2nd)
THIRD INTENTION - 0.5 Points EW @ 14/1 = Unplaced (5th)
16:40 Kim Muir Challenge Cup -
BUDDY BOLERO - 0.5 Points EW @ 12/1 = Faller
Wednesday 12th March 2014 - Cheltenham Festival: Day Two
Cheltenham Festival Day 2
It was a good first day at the festival as far as the blog was concerned (roughly + 12 points for the day). However, no time to dwell on that as the focus now turns to day two.
14:05 RSA Chase -
SMAD PLACE - 1.5 points EW @ 13/2 = PLACED (2nd)
Alan King's gelding has taken well to chasing this term, notching up two wins from his 3 starts so far. In previous year's this 7 year old has been a very useful hurdler, finishing a creditable 3rd in both the 2012 & 2013 World Hurdle, both of which came on similar ground. if that form can be translated from hurdles to fences then he looks a nice prospect for this event. One piece of form that catches the eye in particular comes from last season's Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree's Grand National meeting, where he finished in third a length and a quarter behind Holywell, who has since gone on to win the Baylis & Harding handicap chase yesterday. This has surely only served to boost SMAD PLACES chances here. That sought after course form is there & the return to better ground should definitely suit. Overall, King's charge has hardly put a foot wrong since going over fences, if able to repeat some of that very good World Hurdle form over the larger obstacles here today, he looks set to go well.
14:40 Coral Cup -
3 Selections -
DELL' ARCA - 0.5 points EW @ 12/1 = PLACED (5th)
MEISTER ECKHART - 0.5 points EW @ 20/1 = Unplaced
WHISPER - 0.5 points EW @ 22/1 = WINNER
As with any festival race that sees 28 runners go down to post, this is going to be tricky one. Whatever your picking here your going to need things to fall right & ultimately that bit of luck. Nonetheless i have picked out a few who all look to have good EW chances on a form basis. Starting with DELL' ARCA, David Pipe's lightly raced 5 year old has looked impressive in his 3 runs this season, perhaps most notably when winning around Cheltenham over 17f back at the November meeting on ground similar to that forecast here today. Last time out he was certainly not disgraced when again running on well under pressure, this time in heavy ground to take 2nd in this season's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Although the step up to 21f today is an unknown the manner in which he has kept on in his races suggest it may well suit nicely. MEISTER ECKHART finished runner up in this race last season for trainer Alan King who also saddled the 33/1 winner Medinas. King would appear to play a strong hand again with his 2 entrants, of which MEISTER ECKHART looks the stronger on available form. The 8 year old is only 2lb higher in the ratings than when running extremely well 12 months ago and if repeating that form he could be set for another big run. Finally WHISPER for Nicky Henderson is another who could go well at big odds. The 6 year old has shown some decent form this season, in addition to previously winning over C&D. Would appear to be steadily progressing & with Nico De Boinville taking off a valuable 5lbs, Whisper could find himself running into the places at very backable EW price.
15:20 Champion Chase -
MODULE - 0.25 points EW @ 20/1 = PLACED (3rd)
Also CAPTAIN CONAN tipped up on twitter - 1 point EW @ 4/1 = Pulled up
Should start off by saying that if this was at any other track i would admittedly be all over the favourite - Sire De Grugy, who has been very impressive this season. However, there are worries surrounding his ability to be as effective at this track (worries he may well put to bed). In addition to this it looks a fairly muddling race with further question marks over a few others & question marks over the collateral form concerning those runners. Therefore, i am happy to take a small EW punt on one of the outsiders; MODULE, who in all honesty does look a tad overpriced at 20's. Tom George's gelding has run with plenty of credit in some very good Grade 2 races recently, most notably when winning over 17f at Newbury last time out, could pinch a place at big odds.
16:00 Handicap Chase (Cross Country) -
2 Selections -
BALTHAZAR KING - 0.75 points EW @ 6/1 = WINNER
SIRE COLLONGES - 0.5 points EW @ 11/1 = Unplaced
Phillip Hobbs BALTHAZAR KING, has proven on several occasions that he likes it round Cheltenham, so the first thing he can offer up is plenty of positive course form. The best of that form lies between when winning this race back in 2012 and when winning over C&D back at this seasons November meeting. It has to be said that both runs look to give him a solid chance here today. There may be a worry that as a 10 year old carrying top weight he may struggle; however, he carried top weight on his last win over C&D so we know he can do it. He looked as good as ever when grinding out that impressive victory over C&D last time out & if in the same mood after a break he can go well once more. SIRE COLLONGES for Paul Nicholls is another with plenty of experience over C&D and just like the above, gave perhaps his best performance last time out when battling on really well to win over the course and distance. Has a few other encouraging pieces of Cheltenham form, Similarly to Balthazar King if turning up on a going day he could be one to go well at a nice price.
15:15 Champion Bumper -
3 Selections -
KILLULTAGH VIC - 0.5 points EW @ 10/1
MODUS - 0.5 points EW @ 10.1
DEFINITLY RED - 0.25 points EW @ 20/1
The Champion bumper is always a difficult race to get a good feel for since most of the runners bring only 1 or 2 pieces of form to the table along with plenty of the unknown. However, i have picked out three who look some of the more likely ones based on what they've done so far. Willie Mullins has a formidable record in this race, with 4 of the last 9 winners coming from the Irish champion trainers stable. Unsurprisingly he saddles 3 of the market leaders in this year's renewal. One of which, KILLULTAGH VIC was an impressive winner last time out at Naas when he easily brushed aside last year's third placed horse Golantilla, so he certainly looks capable of going well. MODUS for Robert Stephens comes into this with some valuable Cheltenham experince under his belt already. He won a 15f listed bumper around here in emphatic style back in January making him another worth the punt. Finally DEFINITLY RED for Steve Gollings & the Champ AP complete the trio. He was an impressive winner of a listed class Newbury bumper back in February and although that was on heavy ground he looked good in winning, another who could be in with a shout at a big price.
It was a good first day at the festival as far as the blog was concerned (roughly + 12 points for the day). However, no time to dwell on that as the focus now turns to day two.
14:05 RSA Chase -
SMAD PLACE - 1.5 points EW @ 13/2 = PLACED (2nd)
Alan King's gelding has taken well to chasing this term, notching up two wins from his 3 starts so far. In previous year's this 7 year old has been a very useful hurdler, finishing a creditable 3rd in both the 2012 & 2013 World Hurdle, both of which came on similar ground. if that form can be translated from hurdles to fences then he looks a nice prospect for this event. One piece of form that catches the eye in particular comes from last season's Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree's Grand National meeting, where he finished in third a length and a quarter behind Holywell, who has since gone on to win the Baylis & Harding handicap chase yesterday. This has surely only served to boost SMAD PLACES chances here. That sought after course form is there & the return to better ground should definitely suit. Overall, King's charge has hardly put a foot wrong since going over fences, if able to repeat some of that very good World Hurdle form over the larger obstacles here today, he looks set to go well.
14:40 Coral Cup -
3 Selections -
DELL' ARCA - 0.5 points EW @ 12/1 = PLACED (5th)
MEISTER ECKHART - 0.5 points EW @ 20/1 = Unplaced
WHISPER - 0.5 points EW @ 22/1 = WINNER
As with any festival race that sees 28 runners go down to post, this is going to be tricky one. Whatever your picking here your going to need things to fall right & ultimately that bit of luck. Nonetheless i have picked out a few who all look to have good EW chances on a form basis. Starting with DELL' ARCA, David Pipe's lightly raced 5 year old has looked impressive in his 3 runs this season, perhaps most notably when winning around Cheltenham over 17f back at the November meeting on ground similar to that forecast here today. Last time out he was certainly not disgraced when again running on well under pressure, this time in heavy ground to take 2nd in this season's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Although the step up to 21f today is an unknown the manner in which he has kept on in his races suggest it may well suit nicely. MEISTER ECKHART finished runner up in this race last season for trainer Alan King who also saddled the 33/1 winner Medinas. King would appear to play a strong hand again with his 2 entrants, of which MEISTER ECKHART looks the stronger on available form. The 8 year old is only 2lb higher in the ratings than when running extremely well 12 months ago and if repeating that form he could be set for another big run. Finally WHISPER for Nicky Henderson is another who could go well at big odds. The 6 year old has shown some decent form this season, in addition to previously winning over C&D. Would appear to be steadily progressing & with Nico De Boinville taking off a valuable 5lbs, Whisper could find himself running into the places at very backable EW price.
15:20 Champion Chase -
MODULE - 0.25 points EW @ 20/1 = PLACED (3rd)
Also CAPTAIN CONAN tipped up on twitter - 1 point EW @ 4/1 = Pulled up
Should start off by saying that if this was at any other track i would admittedly be all over the favourite - Sire De Grugy, who has been very impressive this season. However, there are worries surrounding his ability to be as effective at this track (worries he may well put to bed). In addition to this it looks a fairly muddling race with further question marks over a few others & question marks over the collateral form concerning those runners. Therefore, i am happy to take a small EW punt on one of the outsiders; MODULE, who in all honesty does look a tad overpriced at 20's. Tom George's gelding has run with plenty of credit in some very good Grade 2 races recently, most notably when winning over 17f at Newbury last time out, could pinch a place at big odds.
16:00 Handicap Chase (Cross Country) -
2 Selections -
BALTHAZAR KING - 0.75 points EW @ 6/1 = WINNER
SIRE COLLONGES - 0.5 points EW @ 11/1 = Unplaced
Phillip Hobbs BALTHAZAR KING, has proven on several occasions that he likes it round Cheltenham, so the first thing he can offer up is plenty of positive course form. The best of that form lies between when winning this race back in 2012 and when winning over C&D back at this seasons November meeting. It has to be said that both runs look to give him a solid chance here today. There may be a worry that as a 10 year old carrying top weight he may struggle; however, he carried top weight on his last win over C&D so we know he can do it. He looked as good as ever when grinding out that impressive victory over C&D last time out & if in the same mood after a break he can go well once more. SIRE COLLONGES for Paul Nicholls is another with plenty of experience over C&D and just like the above, gave perhaps his best performance last time out when battling on really well to win over the course and distance. Has a few other encouraging pieces of Cheltenham form, Similarly to Balthazar King if turning up on a going day he could be one to go well at a nice price.
15:15 Champion Bumper -
3 Selections -
KILLULTAGH VIC - 0.5 points EW @ 10/1
MODUS - 0.5 points EW @ 10.1
DEFINITLY RED - 0.25 points EW @ 20/1
The Champion bumper is always a difficult race to get a good feel for since most of the runners bring only 1 or 2 pieces of form to the table along with plenty of the unknown. However, i have picked out three who look some of the more likely ones based on what they've done so far. Willie Mullins has a formidable record in this race, with 4 of the last 9 winners coming from the Irish champion trainers stable. Unsurprisingly he saddles 3 of the market leaders in this year's renewal. One of which, KILLULTAGH VIC was an impressive winner last time out at Naas when he easily brushed aside last year's third placed horse Golantilla, so he certainly looks capable of going well. MODUS for Robert Stephens comes into this with some valuable Cheltenham experince under his belt already. He won a 15f listed bumper around here in emphatic style back in January making him another worth the punt. Finally DEFINITLY RED for Steve Gollings & the Champ AP complete the trio. He was an impressive winner of a listed class Newbury bumper back in February and although that was on heavy ground he looked good in winning, another who could be in with a shout at a big price.
Tuesday 11th March 2014 - Cheltenham Festival: Day One
Cheltenham day one -
The festival needs no introduction so will get straight into the selections for day one.
13:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle:
3 Selections -
Vautour - 5 point win @ 3/1 (7/2SP) = WON
Gilgamboa - 0.5 points EW @ 12/1 = unplaced
The Liquidator - 0.5 points EW @ 22/1 = unplaced
The Supreme this year looks a very competitive renewal but perhaps unsurprisingly the biggest stand out for me comes from the Mullins yard, As usual Mullins looks to hold a strong hand with 3 solid entrants. The selection (Vautor) possesses almost the ideal profile coming into this race, stays further than the trip, has the look of a real stamina horse (a big plus at Cheltenham), lines up for arguably the best Cheltenham trainer/jockey combo and just for good measure was an impressive grade 1 winner last time out. The only real negative is the fact that he is yet to run at Cheltenham, considering his profile he should be well suited. Mullins 5 year old gelding couldn't have been more impressive in his 3 runs so far this season (winning all 3) & he could take his game to next level with a big run in the festival opener. Gilgamboa is another of the Irish contingent lining up for this one. A winner in 3 of his 4 races to date, including last time out when nicely beating last year's Triumph hurdle winner Flaxen Flare over 2 miles at Leopardstown. Prior to that he won over 2m 4f at Punchestown, which is a positive since i'm of the opinion that staying further than the required trip is a big positive at Cheltenham. Has improved steadily in 3 runs so far this season and looks one who could go well at a decent EW price in the hands of MCcoy. Lastly in this race, The Liquidator for David Pipe looks a decent EW prospect at 22's. Previous winner here at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 back at the November meeting, Although he only faced 3 rivals he could hardly have won in better fashion scoring by some 15 lengths from the front. In addition to that he finished a very respectable 4th in last years Champion Bumper at the festival on similar ground. Has that important course form, combine that with the fact that Pipe appears to have his string in fine form at the moment, so at 22's the Liquidator looks well worth an EW punt.
Note: paddypower are refunding losing bets on the supreme if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th. worth baring in mind particularly if backing Vautour.
14:05 Arkle Chase
Trifolium - 1 point EW @ 9/2 = PLACED (3rd)
Another of the Irish raiders is the pick here, can't get away from the fact that they get their horses firing for the big meetings over here (namely Cheltenham) time and time again. Trifolium for Charles Byrnes looks a promising sort over fences & while the price allows, an EW bet seems worthwhile. Inevitably there will be plenty of money for Champagne Fever at the head of the market, particularly if Mullins takes the first race. However,Trifolium beat him two runs back and although Champagne Fever is unbeaten at the festival, that was over hurdles and there's question marks as to whether he's as good over fences, ultimately i'm not convinced that form will be reversed and thus Trifolium is the one for me. Byrnes gelding was a very respectable 3rd place finisher in the 2012 Supreme Novices on good ground, proving that all important course form. This season he looks to have taken well to chasing, notching up a 2nd and a win (LTO) on his latest 2 outings, both in grade 1 company. Last time out he looked very impressive when winning by 9 lengths at Leopardstown, beating some good horses including previous festival winner Ted Veale and previous runner up Felix Yonger. Overall Trifolium looks as though he could still be on the up, at the prices he looks the one to be with.
14:40 Festival Handicap Chase
2 Selections -
Time for Rupert - 0.75 points EW @ 14/1 = pulled up
Vintage Star - 0.5 points EW @ 16/1 = fell
Starting with Time for Rupert, Paul Webber's 10 year old is looking dangerously well handicapped on his best form. The old boy has plenty of decent Cheltenham form, including a creditable 5th in the 2012 Gold Cup. Based on those previous Cheltenham runs today's trip of just over 3 mile looks pretty much ideal. Last time out he finished a respectable second at Doncaster over 3 miles in good to soft ground, now down to his lowest mark ever this may just be the Time For Rupert. Secondly Vintage Star is a horse who has been holding his form well this campaign for last year's Grand National winning trainer Sue Smith, particularly in similar races. Ran well to get 6th place in this season's Welsh National after not fully staying the trip. Last time out in a grade 2 handicap over 2 miles 5 he ran another solid race to finish second. The booking of multiple winning Irish champion jockey, Davy Russell is a bit of an eye catcher for this one also. No doubt this is a very competitive handicap but Vintage Star has a nice profile and could go well at a decent EW price.
5:15 Novices Handicap Chase
2 Selections -
Close House - 0.5 Points EW @ 14/1 = unplaced
Ohio Gold - 0.5 Points EW @ 18/1 = pulled up
Starting with David Pipe's 7 year old - Close House, doesn't exactly have a great deal of recent form to get anyone up out of their seat but he is beginning to look potentially well handicapped off a mark of 135. Does have a couple of decent pieces of Cheltenham form, most notably when finishing runner up in a competitive handicap hurdle back at the 2012 November meeting. Since going over fences things haven't quite clicked but the blinkers go on today for the first time & if they can spark a return to some of that useful old hurdle form, particularly that shown around here, then he could be in with a shout at a nice EW price. Moving onto Colin Tizzard's Ohio Gold. Finished 3rd in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark and is looking well handicapped on that form. Ran a respectable 4th last time out over C&D & its looks as though this race has been targeted specifically. 18/1 looks a tad overpriced for a horse with proven form in the race, So Ohio Gold is another who could go well at nice odds.
The festival needs no introduction so will get straight into the selections for day one.
13:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle:
3 Selections -
Vautour - 5 point win @ 3/1 (7/2SP) = WON
Gilgamboa - 0.5 points EW @ 12/1 = unplaced
The Liquidator - 0.5 points EW @ 22/1 = unplaced
The Supreme this year looks a very competitive renewal but perhaps unsurprisingly the biggest stand out for me comes from the Mullins yard, As usual Mullins looks to hold a strong hand with 3 solid entrants. The selection (Vautor) possesses almost the ideal profile coming into this race, stays further than the trip, has the look of a real stamina horse (a big plus at Cheltenham), lines up for arguably the best Cheltenham trainer/jockey combo and just for good measure was an impressive grade 1 winner last time out. The only real negative is the fact that he is yet to run at Cheltenham, considering his profile he should be well suited. Mullins 5 year old gelding couldn't have been more impressive in his 3 runs so far this season (winning all 3) & he could take his game to next level with a big run in the festival opener. Gilgamboa is another of the Irish contingent lining up for this one. A winner in 3 of his 4 races to date, including last time out when nicely beating last year's Triumph hurdle winner Flaxen Flare over 2 miles at Leopardstown. Prior to that he won over 2m 4f at Punchestown, which is a positive since i'm of the opinion that staying further than the required trip is a big positive at Cheltenham. Has improved steadily in 3 runs so far this season and looks one who could go well at a decent EW price in the hands of MCcoy. Lastly in this race, The Liquidator for David Pipe looks a decent EW prospect at 22's. Previous winner here at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 back at the November meeting, Although he only faced 3 rivals he could hardly have won in better fashion scoring by some 15 lengths from the front. In addition to that he finished a very respectable 4th in last years Champion Bumper at the festival on similar ground. Has that important course form, combine that with the fact that Pipe appears to have his string in fine form at the moment, so at 22's the Liquidator looks well worth an EW punt.
Note: paddypower are refunding losing bets on the supreme if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th. worth baring in mind particularly if backing Vautour.
14:05 Arkle Chase
Trifolium - 1 point EW @ 9/2 = PLACED (3rd)
Another of the Irish raiders is the pick here, can't get away from the fact that they get their horses firing for the big meetings over here (namely Cheltenham) time and time again. Trifolium for Charles Byrnes looks a promising sort over fences & while the price allows, an EW bet seems worthwhile. Inevitably there will be plenty of money for Champagne Fever at the head of the market, particularly if Mullins takes the first race. However,Trifolium beat him two runs back and although Champagne Fever is unbeaten at the festival, that was over hurdles and there's question marks as to whether he's as good over fences, ultimately i'm not convinced that form will be reversed and thus Trifolium is the one for me. Byrnes gelding was a very respectable 3rd place finisher in the 2012 Supreme Novices on good ground, proving that all important course form. This season he looks to have taken well to chasing, notching up a 2nd and a win (LTO) on his latest 2 outings, both in grade 1 company. Last time out he looked very impressive when winning by 9 lengths at Leopardstown, beating some good horses including previous festival winner Ted Veale and previous runner up Felix Yonger. Overall Trifolium looks as though he could still be on the up, at the prices he looks the one to be with.
14:40 Festival Handicap Chase
2 Selections -
Time for Rupert - 0.75 points EW @ 14/1 = pulled up
Vintage Star - 0.5 points EW @ 16/1 = fell
Starting with Time for Rupert, Paul Webber's 10 year old is looking dangerously well handicapped on his best form. The old boy has plenty of decent Cheltenham form, including a creditable 5th in the 2012 Gold Cup. Based on those previous Cheltenham runs today's trip of just over 3 mile looks pretty much ideal. Last time out he finished a respectable second at Doncaster over 3 miles in good to soft ground, now down to his lowest mark ever this may just be the Time For Rupert. Secondly Vintage Star is a horse who has been holding his form well this campaign for last year's Grand National winning trainer Sue Smith, particularly in similar races. Ran well to get 6th place in this season's Welsh National after not fully staying the trip. Last time out in a grade 2 handicap over 2 miles 5 he ran another solid race to finish second. The booking of multiple winning Irish champion jockey, Davy Russell is a bit of an eye catcher for this one also. No doubt this is a very competitive handicap but Vintage Star has a nice profile and could go well at a decent EW price.
5:15 Novices Handicap Chase
2 Selections -
Close House - 0.5 Points EW @ 14/1 = unplaced
Ohio Gold - 0.5 Points EW @ 18/1 = pulled up
Starting with David Pipe's 7 year old - Close House, doesn't exactly have a great deal of recent form to get anyone up out of their seat but he is beginning to look potentially well handicapped off a mark of 135. Does have a couple of decent pieces of Cheltenham form, most notably when finishing runner up in a competitive handicap hurdle back at the 2012 November meeting. Since going over fences things haven't quite clicked but the blinkers go on today for the first time & if they can spark a return to some of that useful old hurdle form, particularly that shown around here, then he could be in with a shout at a nice EW price. Moving onto Colin Tizzard's Ohio Gold. Finished 3rd in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark and is looking well handicapped on that form. Ran a respectable 4th last time out over C&D & its looks as though this race has been targeted specifically. 18/1 looks a tad overpriced for a horse with proven form in the race, So Ohio Gold is another who could go well at nice odds.
Monday 27th January 2014 - No Blog
Firstly would like to apologize to followers & readers for the lack of activity on here over the past few weeks. Would also like apologize for the poor form throughout most of January, sometimes this cannot be helped. Fortunately this has been the first overall poor month & as the six months leading up to January were all nicely profitable so the blog's the results still show a very healthy profit overall.
Unfortunately i am having to take a break from racing over the next month or so, due to several other commitments elsewhere during this time. There will be no Blog over the next 5 weeks or so. I am hoping to return to regular posting at the beginning of March but can guarantee daily tipping will start back in time for the Cheltenham festival.
Thanks to anyone who has taken the time to read my work since starting up this site & thanks for all the positive feedback plenty of you have given over twitter, this is always much appreciated.
Hope everyone who has done so continues to read once the blog returns & until then BE LUCKY.
Unfortunately i am having to take a break from racing over the next month or so, due to several other commitments elsewhere during this time. There will be no Blog over the next 5 weeks or so. I am hoping to return to regular posting at the beginning of March but can guarantee daily tipping will start back in time for the Cheltenham festival.
Thanks to anyone who has taken the time to read my work since starting up this site & thanks for all the positive feedback plenty of you have given over twitter, this is always much appreciated.
Hope everyone who has done so continues to read once the blog returns & until then BE LUCKY.
Wednesday 22nd January 2014 - Daily Tips
Lingfield -
13:00 - WILHANA - 8 Point Win @ 10/11 = 2nd
WILHANA has been consistent running in maidens on her 6 starts thus far & although she has spurned some decent looking opportunities she hasn't performed completely without credit. Pam Sly's 4 year old filly has figures that read 222234, with the latter two runs probably her best pieces of form, finishing not far off a few better rivals on each occasion. Her second to last run when going over this trip at Kempton is perhaps her best piece of form, where she was by no means disgraced when finishing a not to far away 3rd behind an odds on Cecil trained winner & a 74 rated runner up. Admittedly she isn't one for maximum faith & by now has proven pretty costly for her followers but all things considered this race looks perhaps her best opportunity yet. The danger looks to be Tim Vaughan's Experimentalist but it looks to me as though he is suited by further & will have to give 9 lb's to WILHANA which could prove tricky. Frankie Dettori returns to action here, taking the ride on Eco Warrior, who is another who can go well but hasn't shown great promise so far & despite the fitting on blinkers expected to bring about improvement he is another who again will have to give 5 lb to WILHANA. Overall this looks a very good opportunity for Pam Sly's filly to get seriously involved once more & if showing her best form she could be capable of repaying her followers. While the price is not going to get many excited it still appears to represent value in race that lacks strength in depth, for a horse who's form is better than her rivals.
13:00 - WILHANA - 8 Point Win @ 10/11 = 2nd
WILHANA has been consistent running in maidens on her 6 starts thus far & although she has spurned some decent looking opportunities she hasn't performed completely without credit. Pam Sly's 4 year old filly has figures that read 222234, with the latter two runs probably her best pieces of form, finishing not far off a few better rivals on each occasion. Her second to last run when going over this trip at Kempton is perhaps her best piece of form, where she was by no means disgraced when finishing a not to far away 3rd behind an odds on Cecil trained winner & a 74 rated runner up. Admittedly she isn't one for maximum faith & by now has proven pretty costly for her followers but all things considered this race looks perhaps her best opportunity yet. The danger looks to be Tim Vaughan's Experimentalist but it looks to me as though he is suited by further & will have to give 9 lb's to WILHANA which could prove tricky. Frankie Dettori returns to action here, taking the ride on Eco Warrior, who is another who can go well but hasn't shown great promise so far & despite the fitting on blinkers expected to bring about improvement he is another who again will have to give 5 lb to WILHANA. Overall this looks a very good opportunity for Pam Sly's filly to get seriously involved once more & if showing her best form she could be capable of repaying her followers. While the price is not going to get many excited it still appears to represent value in race that lacks strength in depth, for a horse who's form is better than her rivals.
Sunday 19th January 2014 - Daily Tips
Kempton -
14:00 First Class - 0.75 Points EW @ 8/1 = 7th of 14
Rae Guests gelding has a solid record here at Kempton, a record which has seen him finish outside the top 3 only once (4th), including 3 wins. Comes here today off the back of a poor display LTO at Lingfield but has been given a bit of a lay off so assuming all is well the return to what is clearly a favored track could bring about a return to form. Had 2 runs over this C&D in similar class 5 events before Christmas (September/November), the first of which he returned a winner with cheek pieces on, staying on well inside the final furlong. After that he went on to post another solid effort without the headgear, finishing 3rd in a race very similar to this one. The headgear goes back on today & if having the desired effect he should be able to give another good account over C&D. Looks well weighted towards the foot with the form there for all to see, so if up to running near his best under regular jockey David Probert then there's no reason why he shouldn't be in with a shout here.
14:00 First Class - 0.75 Points EW @ 8/1 = 7th of 14
Rae Guests gelding has a solid record here at Kempton, a record which has seen him finish outside the top 3 only once (4th), including 3 wins. Comes here today off the back of a poor display LTO at Lingfield but has been given a bit of a lay off so assuming all is well the return to what is clearly a favored track could bring about a return to form. Had 2 runs over this C&D in similar class 5 events before Christmas (September/November), the first of which he returned a winner with cheek pieces on, staying on well inside the final furlong. After that he went on to post another solid effort without the headgear, finishing 3rd in a race very similar to this one. The headgear goes back on today & if having the desired effect he should be able to give another good account over C&D. Looks well weighted towards the foot with the form there for all to see, so if up to running near his best under regular jockey David Probert then there's no reason why he shouldn't be in with a shout here.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)